Market Update
(all values as of 03.29.2024)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 39,807
S&P 500 5,254
Nasdaq 16,379

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 4.59%
10 Yr Treasury 4.20%
10 Yr Municipal 2.52%
High Yield 7.44%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 2,254
Silver 25.10
Oil (WTI) 83.12

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.08
Dollar / Pound 1.26
Yen / Dollar 151.35
Canadian /Dollar 0.73
 

Macro Overview

Financial global markets are draw­ing sup­port from the effectiveness of ongoing vaccinations and improving economic indicators. Consumer sentiment is re-evolving, resulting in rising consumer demand as pandemic worries wane. Pent up demand from the past year is thought to be driving the bulk of economic activity.

Ransomeware cyberattacks and internet crimes have been rising at an alarming rate according to the FBI, threatening companies, government entities and individuals. Digital currencies, such as bitcoin, are the primary form of payment utilized for ransom and extortion cases since payments can be made anonymously and are not traceable. The FBI encourages individuals, especially elders, to be aware of numerous online scams and phone calls by visiting its Common Scams & Crimes site https://www.fbi.gov/scams-and-safety/common-scams-and-crimes.

Escalating inflation concerns prompted Federal Reserve members to consider limiting purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds, which is an indirect method of raising interest rates. The reduction in stimulus efforts, also known as tapering, last occurred in 2013.

The administration released a proposed $6 trillion federal budget for the upcoming fiscal year, expected to be funded by higher taxes for top earners and corporations. Analysts, as well as nonpartisan analysis, expect additional issuance of Treasury debt in order to help fund ongoing federal deficits.

Various states are ending supplemental unemployment benefits which were instituted during the early months of the pandemic last year. It is estimated that 3.7 million unemployed recipients will be affected. Some states eliminating unemployment benefits are instead offering financial incentives for individuals to find a job. The Department of Labor’s most recent data reveal that there were over 8 million unfilled job openings at the end of March, the largest number of openings since November 2018.

An increase in travel has spurred higher fuel costs for airlines and automobiles as pent up demand and the summer months propel prices higher. The average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline rose above $3 per gallon nationally in May, the highest since 2014. Crude oil prices, which directly affect the price of gasoline, have risen over 80% in the past year.   Sources: FBI, Federal Reserve, EIA, Dept. of Labor

Inflationary Pressures Affect Equities – Equity Market Update

Inflation pressures have been a minimal hindrance on the equity markets thus far, as many companies are passing along higher production and material costs to customers while still maintaining margins.

International equity markets, including developed and emerging, are recapturing momentum lost during the pandemic, elevating returns comparable to those in the U.S. markets.

Sectors leading the S&P 500 Index in May include energy, financials, industrials, and materials, representative of economic expansion as deemed by economists and analysts. Expansion in these sectors tend to influence other sectors as growth dynamics transition from industry to industry. Sources: S&P, Bloomberg

 

Fed Tapering is Concerning Bond Markets – Fixed Income Market

Comments by Federal Reserve members are hinting that the Fed is considering pulling back on Treasury and mortgage bond purchases, which is known as tapering. The last time the Fed slowed stimulus or pulled back on quantitative easing (QE), was in 2013, resulting in a so-called “taper tantrum.”

A curtailment in stimulus efforts by the Fed is expected to eventually result in rising bond yields, higher mortgage rates and increased loan expenses for consumers. Historically, rising interest rates have been the Fed’s most useful tool in mitigating inflationary pressures, which has recently become a focal point for the Fed.

Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury

Travel Picks Up – Travel & Leisure

The proliferation of vaccinations, along with pent up demand for travel has driven Americans to finally leave home and head out. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) essentially tracks and counts every traveler passing through a TSA security checkpoint in every airport nationwide. The compiled data over the past year shows a dramatic downturn in travel in May 2020 with just over 176,000 daily travelers versus 1,500,000 daily travelers in May 2021.

Airlines, car rental agencies, restaurants, and hotels tend to benefit the most with an uptick in travel, which has been nearly dormant for the past year. The increase in travel also creates new jobs for the hospitality and travel industries, which were severely hit during the height of the pandemic.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting U.S. highway travel to rise by 15% this summer, from last summer. The EIA also forecasts that consumers will increase their spending on motor gasoline by about 31% this summer due to increased travel as the pandemic subsides.

Source: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput, EIA

Higher Home Prices Create Affordability Challenges For Buyers – Housing Market

Home prices rose at the fastest pace since 2005, rising 12.6% nationwide over the past year. All 50 states saw a rise in home prices with Idaho, Utah, Arizona, New Hampshire and Connecticut experiencing the largest appreciations. Data gathered by the Federal Housing Finance Agency collects price changes on single family home values from all 50 states and over 400 cities. The most recent data available is for the quarter ending March 31, 2021. Analysts expect additional price changes for the quarter ending June 2021 when data is released.

The upward trajectory of home prices has made it less affordable for many to purchase, forcing some would-be home buyers to rent instead. Unfortunately, rising home values have resulted in rising rent costs nationwide, as lacking home supplies have spurred increasing demand for rentals.

Adding to the challenge of higher prices is the threat of rising mortgage rates, which minimizes the affordability of a loan payment each time rates tick higher. Policy changes by the Federal Reserve may eventually affect the direction of where mortgage rates are headed.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, Member FINRA, SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cosner Financial Group (CFG), a registered investment advisor. Triad Advisors and CFG are separate and unrelated companies.

Market Returns: All data is indicative of total return which includes capital gain/loss and reinvested dividends for noted period. Index data sources; MSCI, DJ-UBSCI, WTI, IDC, S&P. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.