W.P. "Bill" Atkinson, III

Certified Financial Planner TM / Attorney

Access Financial Resources, Inc.

3621 NW 63rd Street, Suite A1

Oklahoma City, OK  73116

(405) 848-9826

www.afradvice.com / bill@apaplans.com

April 2026
Market Update
(all values as of 03.31.2026)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 46,341
S&P 500 6,528
Nasdaq 21,590

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.79%
10 Yr Treasury 4.30%
10 Yr Municipal 3.08%
High Yield 7.25%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones -3.58%
S&P 500 -4.63%
Nasdaq -7.11%
MSCI-EAFE -1.12%
MSCI-Europe -3.54%
MSCI-Far East 2.45%
MSCI-Emg Mkt -0.10%
 
US Agg Bond 0.29%
US Corp Bond 0.11%
US Gov’t Bond 0.11%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 4,692
Silver 75.43
Oil (WTI) 102.43

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.14
Dollar / Pound 1.32
Yen / Dollar 159.66
Canadian /Dollar 0.71
 

Macro Overview

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns about oil supply disruptions and shipping risk, especially surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Because a meaningful share of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through that corridor, markets have treated any threat to open transit as economically significant. Even so, the conflict should be viewed as an aggravating factor rather than the sole cause of current macro stress. Many of today’s vulnerabilities were built over time through loose monetary policy, heavy public borrowing, and global dependence on fragile supply chains. Cease-fire headlines have offered only temporary relief, as markets remain skeptical of any agreement that does not materially reduce transit risk and regional escalation. Several countries have become involved in negotiations because of the importance of keeping shipping lanes open and energy flows stable. Oil and natural gas remain central to global commerce, industrial production, and transportation. As a result, disruptions in supply or transit can raise input costs across a wide range of industries. That said, rising energy prices alone do not fully explain broader inflation. They are better understood as a relative price shock that becomes more damaging when layered onto an economy already weakened by prior monetary expansion and declining purchasing power.

Stocks have been volatile as investors weigh geopolitical risk, higher energy costs, and the broader repricing of risk assets. Day-to-day swings have reflected not only developments in the conflict, but also concern that many valuations remain vulnerable after years of unusually easy money and suppressed interest rates. U.S. markets have held up better than some international markets, in part because global capital often moves toward the depth and liquidity of the U.S. financial system during periods of uncertainty. Even so, higher oil prices can pressure profit margins, reduce discretionary spending, and expose weaker business models as earnings reports unfold. Recent corporate tax policy may support investment at the margin by improving after-tax returns, but real capital formation depends on more than tax incentives alone. It also depends on underlying savings, financing conditions, expected profitability, and economic confidence. Significant planned spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure may continue, but those outlays should not be assumed immune to tighter credit, slower growth, or broader market stress. Labor-market data have remained relatively firm on the surface, but a single monthly report should be interpreted cautiously. Headline job creation can obscure underlying weakness, including slowing private demand, sector concentration, labor-force shifts, and reduced real wage purchasing power. Healthcare has continued to add jobs, but that alone is not enough to establish broad economic strength.

The Federal Reserve is watching whether higher fuel and energy costs feed into broader price pressures. But it is important to distinguish between a rise in specific prices and inflation in the broader sense. Geopolitical conflict can push oil and gasoline prices higher, yet sustained erosion in purchasing power is more fundamentally tied to monetary and credit expansion. Higher energy costs may restrain consumer spending and weaken parts of the economy, but they do not by themselves explain the full inflation problem now confronting households and markets. (Sources: Dept. of Labor, Federal Reserve, Dept. of Energy)

 
the average rate for a 30 year mortgage loan rose to 6.46%

Rates Head Higher As Market Turmoil Erupts – Fixed Income Update: Rates moved higher in March as investors demanded greater compensation for inflation risk, deficit financing, and uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy. Rising oil and gasoline prices added pressure, but the broader issue remains the market’s reassessment of purchasing power and the sustainability of lower rates after years of aggressive monetary intervention. Treasury yields rose across maturities as investors questioned how quickly the Federal Reserve could ease without further undermining confidence in the dollar. While Treasuries often benefit from safe-haven flows during geopolitical stress, that support can weaken when inflation fears and heavy government borrowing offset the flight to safety. Mortgage rates also climbed, reaching their highest levels since October and weighing on both purchase and refinance activity. The average rate for a 30-year conforming mortgage was 6.46% at the beginning of April, up from 5.98% at the beginning of March. Looking ahead, inflation data, labor-market conditions, and Treasury supply will remain central to the rate outlook. (Sources: U.S. Treasury, FreddieMac, Federal Reserve)

Volatility Picks Up With Middle East Conflict – Equity Market Overview: Stocks were volatile in March as rising tensions in the Middle East added to an already fragile market environment. Day-to-day swings reflected more than geopolitical headlines alone. Investors were also forced to confront the extent to which valuations, particularly in growth-oriented sectors, remain vulnerable to higher rates and tighter financial conditions. Elevated fuel costs added another layer of pressure by threatening household budgets and business margins at the same time. Energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rose, while other sectors struggled under the weight of higher discount rates and renewed uncertainty. The market’s reaction was a reminder that years of easy money can leave equities priced for stability even when the underlying environment is anything but stable. In March, the energy sector was the strongest-performing sector, gaining roughly 10% as oil-related stocks moved higher. (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, Reuters)

How A Supply Shock Raises Gasoline Prices – Energy Industry Overview: Sudden disruptions to the supply or transportation of oil can push crude and gasoline prices sharply higher, particularly when markets fear prolonged constraints. Historical examples include the 1973 OAPEC embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 1990 Gulf War, along with periodic threats to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. These are real supply-side shocks that raise the relative price of energy. But when an economy is already burdened by prior monetary expansion, higher energy costs can more easily spread through the broader price structure and further erode purchasing power. Modern economies depend on steady fuel supplies, so disruptions can quickly complicate planning for businesses, consumers, and governments. Countries with limited refining capacity or domestic reserves often suffer the greatest strain. The U.S. is better positioned than many nations because of its domestic production, refining capacity, and reserve structure, but it is not immune. Gasoline prices also tend to rise faster than they fall, in part because wholesale cost increases are passed through quickly while retail price declines are often delayed as higher-cost inventory is worked through the system. (Sources: International Energy Agency, U.S. Dept. of Energy)

 
there are over 4,000 operational data centers in the United States

The Challenge With Expanding Data Centers & Energy Usage – Utilities Sector Update 

The scale of planned data-center construction in the United States is raising serious questions about power generation, transmission capacity, and who will ultimately bear the cost. Estimates for future electricity demand from new data centers are substantial, with some projections comparing the added load to the power consumption of a major industrialized nation. As of early 2026, thousands of data centers were already operating in the United States, with many more planned or under development.

These facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity, and in several regions the grid is already facing tighter reserve margins and growing capacity pressure. In response, utilities are planning very large capital expenditures to expand generation, transmission, and related infrastructure. The Edison Electric Institute has estimated that investor-owned utilities will spend more than $1 trillion in coming years on capital projects tied to grid expansion and modernization.

That has made data centers increasingly controversial at the state and local level. Although they bring construction activity, some tax revenue, and limited permanent employment, critics argue that their local economic benefits often fall short of the demands they place on land, water, and especially electricity infrastructure. The central issue is not simply that data centers use a great deal of power, but whether the full costs of serving that demand are being borne by the companies creating it. When utility pricing is distorted by regulation, political bargaining, or cross-subsidized rate structures, households and smaller businesses can end up absorbing part of the burden through higher rates.

Large technology firms are spending heavily on AI-related infrastructure, with much of that capital directed toward semiconductors, servers, buildings, and network equipment. For utilities, the appeal lies in the prospect of long-duration contracts that can support future revenue growth. Even so, long-term contracts do not eliminate the risk of overbuilding, poor capital allocation, or shifting costs onto captive ratepayers if demand forecasts prove too optimistic or regulatory structures weaken normal market discipline. Texas has become a leading destination for data-center development because of its land availability, relatively fast permitting, and more market-oriented power structure. Even there, however, access to reliable power is not unlimited. Transmission constraints, interconnection queues, and reserve-margin concerns still matter, and rapid expansion can expose the tension between growth and grid reliability. Sources: Dept. of Energy, Edison Electric Institute, EPA

 
OPEC Imports have fallen from 70% of U.S. oil imports to 10-15%

OPEC Is At A Crossroads – Oil Industry Update

Escalating conflict in the Middle East has added new strain to an already fragile global oil market, increasing pressure on OPEC and its member countries as they try to balance revenue needs, production policy, and regional politics. OPEC was founded in September 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, and both Iran and Venezuela remain among its member countries today.

A central concern for oil markets is the Strait of Hormuz. In the first half of 2025, oil flows through the strait averaged about 20.9 million barrels per day, equal to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and about one-quarter of total maritime traded oil. Because of that, any threat to shipping through the strait has immediate global consequences for energy prices, transport risk, and market sentiment.

For decades, OPEC has influenced oil markets by coordinating production among major exporters, but it does not simply dictate price. Oil prices emerge from the interaction of supply, demand, inventories, spare capacity, refining constraints, and geopolitical risk. That makes OPEC influential, but not all-powerful. Internal divisions among members, sanctions, and competition from non-OPEC supply all limit the cartel’s room to maneuver.

The United States is far less dependent on OPEC crude than it was decades ago. U.S. import patterns have shifted heavily toward North American supply, especially Canada, although some imports from OPEC and the Middle East still play a role in refinery economics. One reason is that many U.S. refineries were built or upgraded to handle heavier and more sulfurous crude grades, while much of U.S. shale production is lighter and sweeter. As a result, imported heavy crude can still complement domestic production through blending and refinery optimization.

Venezuela also remains a complicated variable. The United States has recently authorized certain limited activities involving Venezuelan oil and investment under specific licenses, while still maintaining broader sanctions pressure. That is better described as selective, conditional re-engagement than a straightforward revival of Venezuela’s oil sector. Sources: International Energy Agency, OPEC.org, Dept. of Energy, Commerce Dept.