Aspen Wealth Management, Inc.

9300 W. 110th Street, Suite 680

Overland Park, KS  66210

913.491.0500

www.aspenwealth.com

April 2026
Market Update
(all values as of 03.31.2026)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 46,341
S&P 500 6,528
Nasdaq 21,590

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.79%
10 Yr Treasury 4.30%
10 Yr Municipal 3.08%
High Yield 7.25%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones -3.58%
S&P 500 -4.63%
Nasdaq -7.11%
MSCI-EAFE -1.12%
MSCI-Europe -3.54%
MSCI-Far East 2.45%
MSCI-Emg Mkt -0.10%
 
US Agg Bond 0.29%
US Corp Bond 0.11%
US Gov’t Bond 0.11%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 4,692
Silver 75.43
Oil (WTI) 102.43

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.14
Dollar / Pound 1.32
Yen / Dollar 159.66
Canadian /Dollar 0.71
 

Macro Overview

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered what may be the most severe disruption to global oil supplies in history, significantly affecting the flow of both oil and natural gas around the world.  Many observers draw comparisons to the 1973 oil crisis, when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Counties (OAPEC) imposed an embargo on the United States and other nations in response to the U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. That embargo restricted where oil was sold, rather than reducing overall production.

Today’s situation appears far more serious.  An estimated 11-12 million barrels per day are currently at risk, with some estimates rising to 13-14 million due to reports of a blockade affecting Iranian exports.  Before the conflict, roughly 20 million barrels per day flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 1.5-2 million barrels of Iranian oil.  In response, Saudi Arabia has ramped up its East-West Pipeline from the eastern Gulf fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the strait.  This Saudi flow of oil through the Red Sea has been restored to full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, an increase of 5-6 million barrels per day.

Oil has long been a cornerstone of global economic activity, and natural gas has become equally vital for many nations.  Together, they account for more than half of global energy consumption, making their reliable production and transport essential to economic stability.

Financial markets have reacted with significant volatility since the conflict began, with daily swings driven by uncertainty and evolving news.  U.S. markets have generally outperformed international ones, as investors seek the relative transparency and liquidity of the American financial system.  Equity markets are particularly sensitive to oil prices, since nearly all goods and services depend on energy for production and distribution.  Higher oil prices tend to compress corporate margins, which may become evident in upcoming earnings reports.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is closely watching the effects of rising energy prices on inflation.  Energy costs account for roughly 6-8% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure guiding interest rate policy.  However, some economists argue that current inflationary pressures are less about consumer demand and more about geopolitical disruptions.  As oil prices and interest rates rise, consumers may scale back discretionary spending and travel, potentially slowing overall economicy growth.

(Sources: Dept. of Labor, Federal Reserve, Dept. of Energy)

 
the average rate for a 30 year mortgage loan rose to 6.46%

Rates Head Higher As Market Turmoil Erupts – Fixed Income Update

Rates rose in March propelled by rising oil and gasoline prices, hindering the Fed’s objective of eventually easing rates. Treasury yields rose across all maturities as markets expected the Fed to abandon its rate reduction promises due to rising inflationary threats. Historically, funds flow into Treasuries during periods of conflict and war, yet the Middle East conflict has influenced Treasuries differently, with rising oil prices stoking inflation. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest levels since October, depressing application activity for new and refi-loans. The average rate for a 30 year conforming mortgage loan was 6.46% at the beginning of April, up from 5.98% at the beginning of March. Inflation and jobs data will determine what the next move will be by the Federal Reserve. (Sources: U.S. Treasury, FreddieMac, Federal Reserve)

Volatility Picks Up With Middle East Conflict – Equity Market Overview

Stocks wavered in March following the start of the Middle East conflict. Volatility rose significantly and abated day to day as details of the conflict and what was expected to transpire fueled speculation. Earnings have become a focal concern as elevated gasoline and diesel prices may eventually seep into corporate profitability. Consumer sentiment has also become an indicator as to where household expenditures might be allocated. All major equity indices reacted as the war erupted, with oil stocks leading while nearly every other sector faltered. Oil industry stocks tend to appreciate as the price of oil rises since their margins increase without any additional expenses. Markets have thus far tested valuations of technology and other growth sectors as the Middle East turmoil has exposed the risks of market fragility. The energy sector was the only positive performing sector in March, gaining 10% as oil related stocks drove prices higher within the sector. (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, Reuters)

How A Supply Shock Raises Gasoline Prices – Energy Industry Overview

The rapid and unexpected disruption in the supply and transportation of oil, as a result of the Middle East conflict, sent oil prices to nearly double their price prior to the conflict. Historically, supply shocks occurred in 1973 with the OAPEC Embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War, and currently the Strait of Hormuz. Such abrupt disruptions in supply and transit of oil can lead to devastating affects on imported energy reliant countries and their economies. Economies globally rely on steady and consistent fuel supplies, which allows companies and governments to plan accordingly for current and future energy needs. When a supply chain is disrupted, prices rise and future plans may be derailed. As oil transports cease, then there is no crude to refine into gasoline, sending supplies lower and prices higher. Countries that have no refineries or oil reserves of their own, tend to suffer the most from supply shocks. The abundance of refineries and oil reserves that the U.S. has, theoretically will buffer the initial onset of the supply shock, allowing oil drillers and producers to gradually increase production to meet demand. Historically, gasoline prices tend to climb much faster than falling, which means that even if a cease-fire successfully occurs, prices may not fall as quickly as they rose. The reason behind this is that gas-station operators, whose margins shrink with quick climbs in wholesale costs, tend to lower prices more gradually while they sell more expensive supplies first. (Sources: International Energy Agency, U.S. Dept. of Energy)

 
there are over 4,000 operational data centers in the United States

The Challenge With Expanding Data Centers & Energy Usage – Utilities Sector Update 

The current number of data centers under construction will need the equivalent amount of electricity as the entire country of Italy. As of early 2026, there are over 4,000 operational data centers in the United States, with nearly 3,000 additional new facilities either planned or under construction.

Data centers consume an enormous amount of electricity, with eight of the regional power grids in the United States already at or below critical spare capacity levels. The Edison Electric Institute estimates that utility companies will spend $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2029 on capital projects in order to expand electricity generation.

Data centers are becoming increasingly debated among politicians and local representatives, since these enormous structures employ just a small number of workers and produce little if any collateral benefits for local communities. Most concerning is the amount of power data centers divert from local homes and communities, having led to utility price increases and rate hikes among various states. Some states have been more approachable than others in working with utilities and their expansion projects in order to provide the electric demanded by data centers.

The majority of the billions of dollars that the large tech companies are spending on AI infrastructure build-out is going towards actual semiconductors, hardware and buildings, with a fraction being spent on electricity. What is driving the growth estimates for utility companies are the numerous decade plus contracts being signed with these tech companies, ensuring years of revenue growth.

Texas leads data center development and construction, providing large land areas, rapid permitting, and a deregulated electric grid that allows developers to access power easily.

Sources: Dept. of Energy, Edison Electric Institute, EPA

 
OPEC Imports have fallen from 70% of U.S. oil imports to 10-15%

OPEC Is At A Crossroads – Oil Industry Update

The Middle East war has brought about a serious challenge for OPEC and its ability to produce and effectively sell oil globally. The current members of OPEC include Venezuela and Iran, both of which are founding members of OPEC which was established in September 1960. Currently, Venezuela’s oil industry is undergoing a significant transition, with the U.S. attempting to revive the industry through increased involvement of American firms. Iran has directly attacked and damaged oil industry facilities in neighboring OPEC member territories, including Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These attacks have obviously hindered Iran’s relations with OPEC members as well neighboring countries in the Middle East.

With roughly 20% of the world’s oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is increasingly being pressured to release its grip on the passage. This contention has become the most significant factor determining the possible outcome of the war. The blockage of the Strait hinders not only global oil supply but also the economic livelihood of countries worldwide whose use of oil and natural gas is critical.

For decades, countries globally have been reliant on OPEC for oil, with OPEC basically setting the price of oil based on their desired production. More recently, the U.S. has significantly reduced its reliance on OPEC, with a dwindling amount of oil imported from OPEC. Over 70% of U.S. oil imports came from OPEC in 1977, falling to 10-15% as of 2025.

The only reason that the U.S. imports oil from OPEC is the fact that the majority of refineries in the United States are geared for processing heavy, high-sulfur crude oil which are often sourced from OPEC nations, rather than the light, sweet oil that constitutes much of the current U.S. oil production. Much of this oil is imported since the U.S. has the capacity to refine OPEC’s heavier oil grades which other countries cannot. U.S. oil producers currently blend imported heavy crude with lighter sweet U.S. crude in order to maximize fuel types and refinery capacity.

Sources: International Energy Agency, OPEC.org, Dept. of Energy, Commerce Dept.

Market Returns: All data is indicative of total return which includes capital gain/loss and reinvested dividends for noted period. Index data sources; MSCI, DJ-UBSCI, WTI, IDC, S&P. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.