Fortis Wealth Management

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April 2026
Market Update
(all values as of 03.31.2026)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 46,341
S&P 500 6,528
Nasdaq 21,590

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.79%
10 Yr Treasury 4.30%
10 Yr Municipal 3.08%
High Yield 7.25%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones -3.58%
S&P 500 -4.63%
Nasdaq -7.11%
MSCI-EAFE -1.12%
MSCI-Europe -3.54%
MSCI-Far East 2.45%
MSCI-Emg Mkt -0.10%
 
US Agg Bond 0.29%
US Corp Bond 0.11%
US Gov’t Bond 0.11%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 4,692
Silver 75.43
Oil (WTI) 102.43

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.14
Dollar / Pound 1.32
Yen / Dollar 159.66
Canadian /Dollar 0.71
 

Macro Overview

The Middle East conflict has caused the largest disruption of global oil supplies to date, constraining the delivery of oil and natural gas to countries worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz—and the degree of control Iran maintains over it—has emerged as the central determinant of the war’s outcome.

Markets are treating any cease-fire agreements with caution, as fragile negotiations limit meaningful reassurance. Multiple countries have become involved in the talks, reflecting the critical importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and safe for navigation.

For decades, oil has been, and remains, a cornerstone of global commerce and economic stability. The expansion of natural gas has also made it a major energy source for many countries. Together, oil and natural gas account for more than half of global energy demand, produced and transported from regions around the world.

Stocks experienced pronounced volatility following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with swings intensifying and easing daily as news releases and expectations fueled speculation. U.S. markets have thus far outperformed international peers, as uncertainty pushed capital toward the transparency and liquidity of the U.S. financial system. Equity markets are sensitive to oil prices because nearly every product and service consumed is produced, manufactured, or transported using oil. Higher oil prices tend to weigh on corporate profitability and earnings, effects that become visible during future reporting periods.

Corporate tax cuts enacted under last year’s tax bill are encouraging firms to expand and invest in infrastructure, research and development, and technology. U.S. companies are expected to invest between $650 billion and $725 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure in 2026. Optimistically, these expenditures are projected to proceed regardless of global or domestic headwinds, aided by the timing of recent tax policies.

The Department of Labor reported the creation of 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% at the end of 2025, underscoring the labor market’s resilience to layoffs and job eliminations. Healthcare continued to lead employment gains, adding 76,000 jobs nationwide in March.

The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of elevated oil and gasoline prices on the economy, which could contribute to broader inflationary pressures. Fuel and energy represent roughly 6% to 8% of the Consumer Price Index, a key metric guiding interest-rate policy. Analysts and economists remain divided over the Fed’s inflation strategy, arguing that current pressures are driven less by consumer demand than by geopolitical conflict. The recent rise in interest rates and oil prices reflects the war’s effects, prompting consumers to curb discretionary spending and travel, trends that could weigh on economic activity. (Sources: Dept. of Labor, Federal Reserve, Dept. of Energy)

 
the average rate for a 30 year mortgage loan rose to 6.46%

Rates Head Higher As Market Turmoil Erupts – Fixed Income Update

Interest rates rose in March, propelled by higher oil and gasoline prices, complicating the Federal Reserve’s objective of eventually easing policy. Treasury yields increased across all maturities as markets began to anticipate that the Fed could retreat from its rate-cut expectations amid mounting inflation risks. Historically, capital flows into Treasuries during periods of conflict and war, yet the Middle East crisis has influenced the market differently, with rising oil prices fueling inflation concerns. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest levels since October, weighing on application activity for both new and refinancing loans. The average rate on a 30-year conforming mortgage rose to 6.46% at the beginning of April, up from 5.98% at the start of March. Inflation and employment data are expected to guide the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. (Sources: U.S. Treasury, FreddieMac, Federal Reserve)

Volatility Picks Up With Middle East Conflict – Equity Market Overview

Stocks wavered in March following the onset of the Middle East conflict. Volatility rose sharply and receded day to day as developments in the war and expectations around its trajectory fueled market speculation. Corporate earnings have emerged as a central concern, as elevated gasoline and diesel prices could eventually pressure profit margins. Consumer sentiment has also gained importance as an indicator of how households may allocate future spending. All major equity indices reacted as the conflict erupted, with energy stocks advancing while most other sectors declined. Oil-related equities typically benefit from rising crude prices, as higher margins accrue without corresponding increases in operating costs. Markets have continued to test valuations in technology and other growth sectors, as geopolitical turmoil has underscored broader market fragility. The energy sector was the only index to post gains in March, rising 10% as oil-linked stocks drove the sector higher. (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, Reuters)

How A Supply Shock Raises Gasoline Prices – Energy Industry Overview

The rapid and unexpected disruption to the supply and transportation of oil resulting from the Middle East conflict sent crude prices to nearly double their prewar levels. Historically, comparable supply shocks occurred during the 1973 OAPEC embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War, and now through disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Such sudden interruptions in oil supply and transit can have severe consequences for energy‑importing nations and their economies. Global economies depend on reliable and consistent fuel supplies, enabling companies and governments to plan for both current and future energy needs. When supply chains are disrupted, prices rise and long-term planning can unravel. As oil shipments are curtailed, less crude is available for refining into gasoline, tightening supplies and driving prices higher. Countries without domestic refining capacity or strategic oil reserves tend to suffer the most during supply shocks. The United States’ extensive refining infrastructure and oil reserves should, in theory, cushion the initial impact, allowing drillers and producers to gradually increase output to meet demand. Historically, gasoline prices tend to rise far more quickly than they fall, meaning that even if a cease‑fire were achieved, prices would likely retreat more slowly than they surged, reflecting the pricing behavior of gas station operators facing higher wholesale costs. (Sources: International Energy Agency, U.S. Dept. of Energy)

 
there are over 4,000 operational data centers in the United States

The Challenge With Expanding Data Centers & Energy Usage – Utilities Sector Update 

The number of data centers currently under construction will require electricity equivalent to the total consumption of Italy. As of early 2026, more than 4,000 data centers are operating in the United States, with nearly 3,000 additional facilities either planned or under construction.

Data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, with eight U.S. regional power grids already operating at or below critical spare-capacity levels. The Edison Electric Institute estimates that utility companies will invest $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2029 in capital projects aimed at expanding electricity generation and grid capacity.

Data centers are increasingly drawing scrutiny from politicians and local officials, as these large facilities employ relatively few workers and generate limited spillover benefits for surrounding communities. Of greater concern is the volume of electricity data centers draw away from local households and businesses, a shift that has contributed to higher utility costs and rate increases in several states. Some states have been more receptive than others in collaborating with utilities on expansion projects to meet the growing power demands of data centers.

The bulk of the billions of dollars large technology companies are spending on AI infrastructure is being directed toward semiconductors, hardware, and physical facilities, with only a smaller portion allocated to electricity costs. What underpins growth projections for utility companies are the multidecade contracts being signed with these firms, locking in long-term demand and predictable revenue streams.

Texas leads the nation in data center development, supported by abundant land availability, expedited permitting processes, and a deregulated electricity market that allows developers relatively easy access to power. (Sources: Dept. of Energy, Edison Electric Institute, EPA)

 
OPEC Imports have fallen from 70% of U.S. oil imports to 10-15%

OPEC Is At A Crossroads – Oil Industry Update

The Middle East war has created a significant challenge for OPEC and its ability to produce and market oil effectively on a global scale. Current OPEC members include Venezuela and Iran, both founding members of the organization established in September 1960. Venezuela’s oil industry is undergoing a major transition, with the United States seeking to revive production through increased involvement by American companies. Iran, meanwhile, has carried out attacks that have damaged oil infrastructure in neighboring OPEC member states, including Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These actions have strained Iran’s relations not only with fellow OPEC members but also with neighboring countries across the Middle East.

With roughly 20% of the world’s oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is facing mounting pressure to loosen its control over the passage. Control of the strait has emerged as the most consequential factor shaping the potential outcome of the war. A closure or blockade disrupts not only global oil supplies but also the economic lifeblood of countries worldwide that depend heavily on oil and natural gas.

For decades, nations around the world have relied on OPEC for oil, with the cartel effectively influencing prices through production decisions. In recent years, however, the United States has significantly reduced its dependence on OPEC, importing a steadily smaller share of its oil from member countries. More than 70% of U.S. oil imports came from OPEC in 1977, a figure that had declined to roughly 10% to 15% by 2025.

The primary reason the U.S. continues to import oil from OPEC is that many domestic refineries are configured to process heavier, high-sulfur crude, which is often sourced from OPEC nations, rather than the lighter, sweeter crude that dominates U.S. oil production. Much of this oil is imported because the United States has the capacity to refine heavier grades that many other countries cannot. U.S. producers often blend imported heavy crude with domestically produced light sweet crude to optimize refinery utilization and fuel output.

Sources: International Energy Agency, OPEC.org, Dept. of Energy, Commerce Dept.

Market Returns: All data is indicative of total return which includes capital gain/loss and reinvested dividends for noted period. Index data sources; MSCI, DJ-UBSCI, WTI, IDC, S&P. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.