Michael McCormick

5 West Mendenhall, Ste 202 | Bozeman, MT 59715

406.920.1682  mike@mccormickfinancialadvisors.com

Sustainable Income Planning | Investments | Retirement

MFA Late Summer 2025
Market Update
(all values as of 07.31.2025)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 44,130
S&P 500 6,339
Nasdaq 21,122

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.94%
10 Yr Treasury 4.37%
10 Yr Municipal 3.27%
High Yield 6.86%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 3.73%
S&P 500 7.78%
Nasdaq 9.38%
MSCI-EAFE 15.67%
MSCI-Europe 18.44%
MSCI-Pacific 10.55%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 15.60%
 
US Agg Bond 3.75%
US Corp Bond 4.24%
US Gov’t Bond 3.72%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 3,346
Silver 36.79
Oil (WTI) 69.38

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.15
Dollar / Pound 1.33
Yen / Dollar 148.58
Canadian /Dollar 0.72
 

“Few topics offer a more powerful magnifying glass that explain why people behave the way they do more than money.  It is one of the greatest shows on Earth”  – The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

Dear Friends,

When I was beginning my financial services profession I was lucky enough to be able to spend time with some of Bozeman’s most experienced and renowned financial advisors.  During a period of unusual ‘volatility’ (jargon for people losing money), I asked one of them what he thought about it.  His reply was sage advice – “This is just noise and should be ignored for long term investors”.  It’s the best answer, it’s the only answer, it’s what we should always do!  Well, the date was March of 2008 and the market proceeded to go straight down for a year and destroy the fortunes of millions of people.  It just goes to show you, investing is not a science.  Instead perhaps it is more of a ‘soft skill’, as author Morgan Housel describes it, one greatly shaped by our personal experiences and governed by our unique behavior.

I just read ‘The Psychology of Money’ and it’s a fantastic read!  Housel’s book tells stories about money that illustrate 20 separate lessons we can all relate to.  But at the heart of it, he eloquently describes something that we are all wise to recognize: while the average market return is important, it rarely describes our own individual experience because we are humans, caught in our own lives and times.  Keeping that in mind helps us make prudent investment decisions, not those based in greed or fear.

Community Type II Fun!

Speaking of fear, there has not been a significant and sustained correction in the market since COVID.  Crypto dollars, hedge funds in 401k’s, and Fed Rates being set by politicians are all things that could spell real trouble down the road.  It’s a risky thing to invest in the stock market at new highs and it should feel scary to commit significant portions of your net worth to something so esoteric and out of your control.  There are no guarantees that the music won’t stop tomorrow!

However, if there were no risk, there would be no reward.  And to us, things look pretty good as of now.  Currently, we have a pro-growth government, very low unemployment, manageable inflation, and household net worth has grown by $50T since the pandemic and consumers have $9 in assets for every $1 in liabilities.  The club of ultrahigh net worth individuals with more than $30 million in assets hit a record in 2024. The U.S. added more than 1,000 millionaires every day last year on average. And the billionaire club grew more than 50% between 2015 and 2024.  We recognize that these are the salad days and now is a great time to prepare for rain, the bad kind.  Use extra money to reduce debt, bolster emergency funds, and diversify.  But after that, we think the markets have more to give.  Call us if you or someone you care about could use a hand.

BLS, U.S. Treasury, Bloomberg, SS.gov, CRFB, WhiteHouse.gov, UBS, Altra, JP Morgan

 
average vehicle in 1949 achieved roughly 13 MPG

One Big Beautiful Bill Act Highlights

Estate Tax Exclusion:  Increases to $15 million for single filers and $30 million for married filers in 2026, and with further inflation-indexed increases after 2026. Different from prior estate tax exclusion provisions in that the bill made this increase “permanent” in the sense that no automatic sunset or expiration date has been imposed. The current exemption for individuals of $13.61 million and $27.22 million for married couples, was set to be reduced by half at the end of 2025.

Interest Deduction On Auto Loans:  Interest on auto loans deductible, yet applicable to only new autos with final assembly in the U.S. for tax years 2025 – 2028. Deduction limited to $10,000 and phases out when income exceeds $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for joint filers.

Tax On Overtime Pay:  This deduction, capped at $12,500 for individuals and $25,000 for joint filers, phases out for higher earners and is set to expire on December 31, 2028. While it doesn’t eliminate taxes on overtime, it provides a tax break for those working extra hours, potentially increasing take-home pay.

Trump Accounts / MAGA Accounts:  Tax-deferred investment accounts for newborn American children born in the United States between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2028. Newborns will be seeded with a one-time government contribution of $1,000. The accounts will track a stock index and allow for parents and families to make additional private contributions of up to $5,000 per year.  Account holders will be allowed to make partial withdrawals at age 18, and access the full amount at age 25, but only for specific purposes, such as paying for higher education or taking a loan to start a small business. Account holders gain full access to the funds at age 30 to use it for any purpose. Parents or the child’s legal guardians manage the account until the child reaches 18.  To open an account, the child’s guardian or parent must have a Social Security number and be authorized to work in the US.  The initial $1,000 provided by the government to fund Trump Accounts is a government contribution, not a tax credit in the traditional sense for taxpayers who contribute to the account. There are no tax deductions for contributions, and earnings are taxed as ordinary income.

Expanded 529 Plan Provisions:  The bill expands the definition of qualified expenses for 529 plans beyond traditional higher education costs and K–12 tuition to include a wider range of educational and career development opportunities such as vocational schools, trade schools, and technical schools. Newly eligible expenses include tuition, books, fees, exam costs, and supplies for workforce, on-the-job training, and continuing education programs.
The $10,000 per-year limit for K–12 tuition and the $10,000 lifetime limit for student loan repayments remain in place. Federal tax treatment of 529 plan growth, as well as in-state tax deductions and credits, are unchanged.

Tax on Social Security:  The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), also known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2025, does not actually eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, instead, it provides a temporary, income-based deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older.  The deduction is $6,000 per individual and phases out for those with higher incomes over $75,000 for single filers, $150,000 for joint filers. The deduction is not limited to those receiving Social Security benefits, it also applies to all seniors within the specified income limits. The deduction is temporary and set to expire at the end of 2028. The OBBB does not make any changes to the Social Security program itself, such as the benefits structure or eligibility requirements.

 

 
Data centers are projected to account for up to 12% of electricity demand by 2028

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Is Elevating The Cost of Electricity – Energy Sector Update

As the expansion and proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues throughout the economy, the demand for electricity is also intensifying. AI is essentially fields of servers packed with incredibly fast semiconductor processors that demand enormous amounts of energy in order to calculate and process data. These server facilities are known as data centers which are usually located in rural areas such as deserts and harsh weather regions. Demand for power by these data centers is directly competing with demand by consumers across the country, leading to rising utility bills.

As the nation’s power grid struggles to provide ample energy for consumers, data centers, and factories, the need to expand and build new power plants has risen to levels never seen before. The average cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in a U.S. city began to rise above historical trends in 2021 when significant expansion of the data center industry began, including a large number of new facilities coming online that same year. The building and opening of new data centers has continued ever since, with the average data center consuming almost as much power as a small city. Data centers accounted for roughly 4.4% of total electricity consumption in 2023, with projections estimating a rise to 6.7% to 12% by 2028, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. (Sources: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

How Autos Have Become More Fuel Efficient Over The Decades – Auto Industry Overview

As technological advances have been applied to the auto industry, cars have become more efficient and electronically sensible. Technology has been able to increase horse-power while also decreasing fuel consumption over the past few decades.

Smaller, more efficient 4 cylinder engines now produce the same amount of power as earlier V8 engines from the 70s and 80s that were known as “fuel hogs”. Data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration as early as 1949, has shown a gradual decrease in fuel consumption per vehicle, translating into higher miles per gallon (MPG). The average vehicle in 1949 achieved roughly 13 MPG, while the average vehicle as of the most recent data was 18.4 MPG. (Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

 
Credit card debt accounts for 6.5% of total consumer debt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey!  Montana wants to give us back some property tax money (up to $400).  Don’t miss out on this opportunity because the window closes October 1 of this year!  https://revenue.mt.gov/taxes/property-tax-rebate/

About Us

Our clients enjoy the feeling of having their financial lives kept in order.  Freedom from worry comes from working with an experienced advisor that understands your entire financial life and is accessible and attentive to your needs.  As a fiduciary, Mike is unable to receive commissions from financial products and free to make recommendations that are unbiased by Wall Street.  With over a decade of experience caring for a small family of clients, our specialties are preserving wealth and generating sustainable income.  Our average client net worth ranges from $5 to $30 Million.  Go outside, we’ve got this.

Cancel or move to digital?  mike@mccormickfinancialadvisors.com with your preference.  No worries!