Ocean Park Capital Management
2503 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90405
Main: 310.392.7300
Daily Performance Line: 310.281.8577
| Dow Jones | 48,892 |
| S&P 500 | 6,939 |
| Nasdaq | 23,461 |
| 2 Yr Treasury | 3.52% |
| 10 Yr Treasury | 4.26% |
| 10 Yr Municipal | 2.62% |
| High Yield | 6.52% |
| Dow Jones | 1.73% |
| S&P 500 | 1.37% |
| Nasdaq | 0.95% |
| MSCI-EAFE | 5.22% |
| MSCI-Europe | 4.46% |
| MSCI-Pacific | 6.91% |
| MSCI-Emg Mkt | 8.86% |
| US Agg Bond | 0.11% |
| US Corp Bond | 0.18% |
| US Gov’t Bond | 0.0% |
| Gold | 4,909 |
| Silver | 85.25 |
| Oil (WTI) | 65.74 |
| Dollar / Euro | 1.19 |
| Dollar / Pound | 1.38 |
| Yen / Dollar | 153.13 |
| Canadian /Dollar | 0.73 |
Ocean Park Investors Fund rose 5.34%* in January, while the S&P 500 rose 1.37% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.95%.
Companies involved in the production of semiconductor memory chips drove the fund’s outperformance. In recent months, investors have recognized that AI will generate exponential demand for memory chips to run data centers that routinely exceed 1,000,000 square feet (the size of 15 football fields). The demand extends not only to the chips but also for machines that manufacture the chips, machines that test the chips, and memory drives that incorporate the chips.
Stocks in these subsectors saw explosive performance in January and the fund had positions in each of them including memory chips (Micron up 45%), semiconductor test and equipment makers (Applied Materials and Teradyne each up 25%, ASML Holdings up 33%, Lam Research up 37%, and MKS Instruments up 47%), and memory drives (Seagate Technology and Western Digital each up 45%).
Daily updates on our activity are available on our Results Line, at 310-281-8577, and on our website at www.oceanparkcapital.com. Enter password opcap.
*These results are pro forma. Actual results for most investors will vary. Additional disclosures on page 4. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Eight of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 rose in October, with energy stocks the best gainers and financials the worst losers. Value stocks outperformed growth. Volatility was benign, as the S&P 500 moved more than 1% on only 2 of 20 trading days. The forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 at month end remained elevated at 22.2, above the 5-year and 10-year averages.
Fourth quarter earnings reported in January were solid but unspectacular. With 33% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 75% beat consensus earnings expectations and 65% beat consensus revenue expectations. While these numbers were positive, the frequencies of both earnings beats and revenue beats were lower than their one-year and five-year average beat rates. However, the aggregate size of earnings beats was strong at 9.1%, well above consensus expectations and better than the one-year average of 7.4% and the five-year average of 7.7%.
Economic data in January had no clear direction. The Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations, but the Producer Price Index showed a surprising uptick, suggesting inflationary pressure. Unemployment declined, but job creation was anemic. Manufacturing indices were weak, but services activity surprised to the upside.
Third quarter GDP was revised slightly higher, indicating some growth momentum exiting last year. Retail sales were strong but consumer confidence surveys were mixed.
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. The decision was not unanimous, with two policymakers favoring an immediate rate cut, signaling a more active internal debate over how restrictive policy needs to be at this stage. Chairman Powell highlighted that “job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Analysts doubt the Fed will cut rates at its March meeting and judge the likelihood of a cut at the April meeting as about 50-50. Powell’s term as Chairman ends in May, but his term as a member of the Fed does not end until 2028. He has not indicated if he will remain.
Performance data for OPI reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings on the fund’s assets. Performance data for the major indices reflect only changes in the value of those indices, and would be higher if dividends were included. However, the index data do not reflect fees that would be paid to index fund managers and transaction costs that would be incurred when their component stocks are bought or sold, while OPI’s data do reflect quarterly fees and expenses incurred by the fund. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.