W.P. "Bill" Atkinson, III

Certified Financial Planner TM / Attorney

Access Financial Resources, Inc.

3621 NW 63rd Street, Suite A1

Oklahoma City, OK  73116

(405) 848-9826

www.afradvice.com / bill@apaplans.com

4Q 2024 Client Newsletter
Market Update
(all values as of 04.30.2025)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 40,669
S&P 500 5,569
Nasdaq 17,446

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.60%
10 Yr Treasury 4.17%
10 Yr Municipal 3.36%
High Yield 7.69%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones -4.41%
S&P 500 -5.31%
Nasdaq -9.65%
MSCI-EAFE 12.00%
MSCI-Europe 15.70%
MSCI-Pacific 5.80%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 4.40%
 
US Agg Bond 3.18%
US Corp Bond 2.27%
US Gov’t Bond 3.13%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 3,298
Silver 32.78
Oil (WTI) 58.22

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.13
Dollar / Pound 1.34
Yen / Dollar 142.35
Canadian /Dollar 0.72

Macro Overview

Presidential campaigning and expectations about the Fed’s direction with rates enthralled the markets in 2024. Equity indices finished the year positively, yet demonstrated hesitation throughout the year. Expectations surrounding the depth of interest rate decreases by the Fed differed as inflation data continued to hinder the trajectory of reductions.

Cryptocurrency and AI were all the rage in 2024, as enthusiasm and speculation surrounding the future of both garnered investor attention.  Cryptocurrency has surged on speculation that perhaps digital money might become a form of legitimate global currency in the future and even replacing currencies from certain countries.

Among the focal factors for the incoming presidential administration are deregulation, lower corporate and individual taxes, immigration, reduced government spending and expanding U.S. manufacturing. Markets are anxiously awaiting final confirmation of cabinet appointments, whose influence can affect the direction of companies and industries.

Lingering inflation worries weighed on markets as data revealed that prices remained stubbornly elevated, particularly with food and housing expenses. Consumers became more selective in 2024 as the costs for essential goods and services rose, leaving less to spend on discretionary items.

The Treasury Department confirmed reports that it was hacked by a China backed hacker in late December. Several Treasury employee workstations and unspecified documents were accessed after a key from a third-party software service provider was stolen. The agency disclosed the breach in a letter to the Senate Banking Committee.

Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 72.5 million Americans will increase 2.5 percent in 2025. The 2.5 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits payable to nearly 68 million Social Security beneficiaries in January 2025. Increased payments to nearly 7.5 million SSI recipients began on December 31, 2024.

Escalating federal deficits and expanding government debt issuance rattled the U.S. Treasury debt market, sending Treasury yields higher towards the end of 2024. Weakening demand for newly issued Treasury bonds also placed pressure on bond prices, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond ending 2024 at 4.58%, up from 3.95% at the beginning of 2024. (Sources: Fed, Treasury Dept., SS Admin., Labor Dept.)

 
Social Security Fairness Act, Expanding Benefits for Millions of Public Sector Workers
Social Security Fairness Act, Expanding Benefits for Millions of Public Sector Workers
President Joe Biden signed the Social Security Fairness Act on Sunday, marking the first significant expansion of Social Security benefits in 20 years. The legislation eliminates two longstanding provisions—the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO)—which had previously reduced Social Security benefits for millions of public sector retirees receiving pension income.
“This bill is about a simple but profound principle: Americans who have worked hard all their lives deserve to retire with dignity and financial security,” President Biden said during the signing ceremony.
Key Changes and Benefits
The elimination of WEP and GPO means that retirees who earned pensions from jobs not covered by Social Security will no longer face reduced benefits. According to Biden, this change will result in:
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will cost $196 billion over the next decade.
How It Affects You
For Those Who Previously Filed for Social Security Benefits: If your benefits were partially or fully offset due to WEP or GPO, no immediate action is required. Ensure your mailing address and direct deposit information are up-to-date via your my Social Security account at www.ssa.gov/myaccount. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is currently determining how to implement the Act and will provide updates soon.
For Those Who Have Not Filed for Benefits: If you receive a public pension and wish to file for Social Security benefits, you can:
What’s Next?
The SSA is actively evaluating the implementation process for the Social Security Fairness Act and will provide further details in the coming weeks. Americans are encouraged to monitor updates through official channels.

 

 

 
The U.S. government holds more than $13 billion in bitcoin

What Is Driving Cryptocurrency – Digital Currency Market Update

The cryptocurrency market has seen significant developments and price movements following the election in anticipation of potential regulatory changes and proactive support for its broad use. The nomination of Paul Atkins as the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seen as a positive catalyst for the crypto industry. A number of large companies have started integrating cryptocurrency into their operations and balance sheets, identifying it as an asset and financial instrument. The U.S. government currently holds approximately 210,000 bitcoins worth more than $13 billion, a portion of which was seized due to criminal activity.

The Securities and Exchange Commission regulates assets it determines to be securities; however, it doesn’t yet regulate digital currencies, but it is regulating investments or derivatives related to cryptocurrency. As a form of virtual currency, Bitcoin exists solely online, functioning through a transparent ledger known as Bitcoin blockchain. Each transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, ensuring all the transactions remain secure and visible.

The most broadly held and popular cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which is essentially virtual money that is traded digitally by exchanges. Bitcoins can only be purchased and sold with legitimate currency, such as dollars or euros, making it available worldwide. The total estimated value of Bitcoins worldwide as of the beginning of December 2024 is over 73 billion dollars.

Bitcoins exist as software, not physical currency, and are not regulated by any country or banking authority. Even though U.S. Senate hearings disclosed that Bitcoin could be a means of exchange, it gave no assurance that it would actually become an accepted medium of exchange. Government regulations would need to be created and then enforced in order for Bitcoin to become accepted by other government entities.

Bitcoins are mined by powerful computers that calculate complex, mathematical functions. Total Bitcoin quantity is capped at 21 million and currently there are about 19.5 million that exist worldwide. Circulating physical coins only represent Bitcoin and are not a store of value as is legitimate currency.

Bitcoins emerged in 2008 designed by a programmer or group of programmers under the name of Nakamoto, whose real identity remains unknown. New Bitcoins can only be created by solving complex math problems embedded in the currency, keeping total growth limited. (Sources: U.S. Marshalls Service, Bloomberg, Reuters)

 
life expectancy in the U.S. increased to 79.3 years in 2024
The Rising Cost of Health Insurance: A 40-Year Perspective

Over the past four decades, the cost of health insurance for American households has risen dramatically. Data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) paints a clear picture of this escalating burden, with average household expenditures on health insurance increasing year after year. What was once a manageable expense has become a significant financial strain for many. In 1984, the average American household spent just $370 annually on health insurance. By 2000, this figure had climbed to $980, reflecting steady growth over the intervening years. The upward trajectory continued, and by 2010, households were paying an average of $1,826 annually for coverage. If this trend had remained consistent, the average cost in 2023 would have been expected to reach approximately $2,927 per household.

However, reality has far outpaced these projections. In 2023, the average household expenditure on health insurance soared to $4,049, more than double the amount paid in 2010. This sharp acceleration in costs significantly exceeded the previous growth trend by over 38%.
One of the most significant turning points in this trend was the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as “Obamacare.” Enacted in 2010 and fully implemented by 2014, the ACA aimed to make health insurance more accessible and affordable for all Americans. While it succeeded in expanding coverage to millions of uninsured individuals, the data suggests that it also contributed to a marked increase in insurance costs. Since the ACA’s implementation, health insurance expenses have risen at an unprecedented rate.
The cost increases have become even more pronounced since 2021, a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. This additional spike has only intensified the financial pressures faced by American households. The trajectory of health insurance costs over the past 40 years underscores the challenges of managing healthcare affordability in the United States. While policies like the ACA have sought to address coverage gaps, their impact on overall costs remains a contentious issue. As expenses continue to rise, finding sustainable solutions to the healthcare affordability crisis will be crucial for policymakers and families alike. (Source: Zerohedge Article)

 

 
Statewide High Temperature Records - December and All Time - Source: @ChrisMartzWX, NOAA

Statewide “December High” Temperature Records: “Did you know 29 (58% of) U.S. states set their “all-time” December high temperature records >50 years ago. Of those, 23 (46%) of them were set either in or before 1955. All but four states set their December records before the year 2000.”

Statewide “All Time” High Temperature Records: And, “38 states (76% of them) set their [all time record high] before 1955.”

 
Federal Budget FY 2023

Department of Government Efficiency: “In FY2023, the U.S. Government spent $6.16. trillion while only bringing in $4.47 trillion. The last budget surplus was in 2001. This trend must be reversed, and we must balance the budget.” (Source: Department of Government Efficiency @DOGE)