Derek J. Sinani

Founder/Managing Partner

derek@ironwoodwealth.com

7047 E. Greenway Parkway, Ste. 250

Scottsdale, AZ 85254

480.473.3455

January 2025 - HAPPY NEW YEAR !!
Market Update
(all values as of 04.30.2025)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 40,669
S&P 500 5,569
Nasdaq 17,446

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.60%
10 Yr Treasury 4.17%
10 Yr Municipal 3.36%
High Yield 7.69%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones -4.41%
S&P 500 -5.31%
Nasdaq -9.65%
MSCI-EAFE 12.00%
MSCI-Europe 15.70%
MSCI-Pacific 5.80%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 4.40%
 
US Agg Bond 3.18%
US Corp Bond 2.27%
US Gov’t Bond 3.13%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 3,298
Silver 32.78
Oil (WTI) 58.22

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.13
Dollar / Pound 1.34
Yen / Dollar 142.35
Canadian /Dollar 0.72

Macro Overview:  Presidential campaigning and expectations about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy enthralled markets throughout 2024. Equity indices finished the year positively, yet demonstrated hesitation throughout the year by climbing a wall of worry. Expectations surrounding the depth of Fed easing differed as inflation data and a strong economy hindered the perceived trajectory of future cuts.  Since the mid-2024, I’ve been suggesting that the Fed did not need to aggressively cut rates.  During the fall of 2024, I wrote that it was prudent for the Fed to consider pausing/slowing their pace of monetary easing.  At the December FOMC meeting they came around to this thinking and signaled a slowing/reduction of their previously projected pace of cuts.  The markets reacted negatively to this news – sending markets broadly lower into year-end, which has carried over into the new year.  I welcome the Fed’s policy shift as it will lengthen the overall easing cycle into 2026 – while reducing the risk of overstimulating the economy and stock market.  Once digested, I strongly believe the markets will embrace this thinking and it will become a positive narrative for 2025.

Cryptocurrency and AI were all the rage in 2024, as enthusiasm and speculation surrounding the future of both garnered investor attention.  Cryptocurrency has surged on speculation that digital money might become a form of legitimate global currency in the future.  The new administration’s talk of creating a strategic government bitcoin reserve certainly legitimizes the asset class.  Blackrock, one of the world’s preeminent asset managers suggests interested investors hold 2% of their portfolio in bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Among the focal factors for the incoming presidential administration are deregulation, lower corporate and individual taxes, immigration, reduced government spending and expanding U.S. manufacturing. Markets are anxiously awaiting final confirmation of cabinet appointments, whose influence can affect the direction of companies and industries.  Deregulation and lower corporate/individual taxes are very pro-business, as such, are very pro-economy and pro-stock market.

Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 72.5 million Americans will experience a 2.5 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025.

Escalating federal deficits and expanding government debt issuance rattled the U.S. Treasury debt market, sending Treasury yields higher towards the end of 2024. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond ending 2024 at 4.58%, up from 3.95% at the beginning of 2024.

 
The average American household spends about 32.9% of their income on housing

Rates End Year With Uncertainty – Fixed Income Overview:  Tensions rose surrounding the Treasury market as the weighted average interest rate on outstanding Treasury debt is currently around 3.3%, a 15-year high. Additional Treasury debt issuance has become a contention as weakened demand for new bonds became more apparent. Bond yields were challenged throughout 2024 as uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s decision to reduce rates lingered. The Fed’s initial rate reduction in September 2024 was the commencement of additional rate cuts over the next couple of years. Inflation data and employment figures will be the primary driver of the Fed’s trajectory for rate cuts in 2025. (Sources: Treasury Dept., Federal Reserve)

Equity Indices Enter 2025 With Hesitation – Domestic Equity Update

Despite December market decline, equity indices finished 2024 with gains across all eleven sectors of the S&P 500 Index. The communication services, financials, consumer discretionary, and the utilities sector saw the largest gains in 2024.  I anticipate a continuation of the December weakness and forecast a market correction during the first quarter – likely stabilizing by the end of February.  With that said, I remain very constructive on the financial markets for 2025. Analysts will be focused on earnings and cabinet appointments whose influence on company directives and initiatives can be critical.  (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Nasdaq)

Percentage of Average Wage Going Towards Housing Highest Since 2007 – Housing Market Update

A persistent shortage of housing along with elevating mortgage rates and rising insurance costs have made the cost of home ownership and renting excessive for many. The percentage of income spent on housing has increased significantly in recent years, making affordability a major concern for many households.

The average American household spends about 32.9% of their total earnings on housing costs. However, this figure can vary widely depending on location and whether someone rents or owns their home. Some parts of the country command much higher housing and rental costs than other parts of the country, thus encompassing varied percentages on how much is spent on housing relative to income. Additionally, incomes also vary among various states and cities contingent on demographics.

It has been generally recommended spending no more than 30% of gross income on housing costs, a guideline known as the “30% rule”. The guideline has been a standard benchmark for decades, however, it may now be considered outdated and overly simplistic today.

Sources: Department of Labor

 

 

 
The U.S. government holds more than $13 billion in bitcoin

What Is Driving Cryptocurrency – Digital Currency Market Update

The cryptocurrency market has seen significant developments and price movements following the election in anticipation of potential regulatory changes and proactive support for its broad use. The nomination of Paul Atkins as the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seen as a positive catalyst for the crypto industry.

A number of large companies have started integrating cryptocurrency into their operations and balance sheets, identifying it as an asset and financial instrument. The U.S. government currently holds approximately 210,000 bitcoins worth more than $13 billion, a portion of which was seized due to criminal activity.

The Securities and Exchange Commission regulates assets it determines to be securities; however, it doesn’t yet regulate digital currencies, but it is regulating investments or derivatives related to cryptocurrency.

As a form of virtual currency, Bitcoin exists solely online, functioning through a transparent ledger known as Bitcoin blockchain. Each transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, ensuring all the transactions remain secure and visible.

The most broadly held and popular cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which is essentially virtual money that is traded digitally by exchanges. Bitcoins can only be purchased and sold with legitimate currency, such as dollars or euros, making it available worldwide. The total estimated value of Bitcoins worldwide as of the beginning of December 2024 is over 73 billion dollars.

Bitcoins exist as software, not physical currency, and are not regulated by any country or banking authority. Even though U.S. Senate hearings disclosed that Bitcoin could be a means of exchange, it gave no assurance that it would actually become an accepted medium of exchange. Government regulations would need to be created and then enforced in order for Bitcoin to become accepted by other government entities – this evolutionary outcome seems likely.

Bitcoins are mined by powerful computers that calculate complex, mathematical functions. Total Bitcoin quantity is capped at 21 million and currently there are about 19.5 million that exist worldwide. Circulating physical coins only represent Bitcoin and are not a store of value as is legitimate currency.

Bitcoins emerged in 2008 designed by a programmer or group of programmers under the name of Nakamoto, whose real identity remains unknown. New Bitcoins can only be created by solving complex math problems embedded in the currency, keeping total growth limited – thus, supporting its scarcity value.

Sources: U.S. Marshalls Service, Bloomberg, Reuters

 
life expectancy in the U.S. increased to 79.3 years in 2024

U.S. Life Expectancy Rates Increased To Highest Level Since Pandemic – Health & Well Being

Recently released data by the Center of Disease Control and Prevention reveal that life expectancy in the U.S. increased to 79.3 years in 2024. During the pandemic, life expectancy fell as the three leading causes of death in 2020 were heart disease, cancer and Covid-19. Life expectancy for all Americans in 2019 was 78.8 years, falling to 77 years in 2020. Those aged 85 and older saw the most deaths, many experiencing medical complications from Covid-19. In 2020, Covid related deaths exceeded deaths caused by strokes, Alzheimers, diabetes, and kidney disease.

The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services tracks factors contributing to life expectancy including age, gender and race. The most recent data revealed that females are estimated to live to age 83.8 while males are expected to live to 76.1, a seven year difference.

Medical advancements and safer living conditions over the decades have led to a gradual increase in life expectancy. In 1860, life expectancy in the United States was 39, increasing to 69 in 1960, representing a 30 year life span increase in 100 years. (Sources: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, CDC)

Imports & Tariffs – Domestic Trade Policy

As the president-elect prepares to enter the White House, foreign imports into the U.S. have become a leading agenda item. According to the Commerce Department, the top imports into the U.S. include electronic devices such as mobile phones, computers and TVs, followed by machinery and automobiles. The onset of additional tariffs and import duties might change the makeup of imports dramatically, as consumers tackle higher prices along with some manufacturing possibly shifting to the U.S.

The biggest question everyone has is, how will higher tariffs affect U.S. consumers and the economy. The most dominant imports currently tend to be high margin products such as mobile phones, laptops, and computers. Any additional tariffs might either be partially absorbed by the exporters or passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices. What’s interesting is that the onset of cheap Chinese made products have actually altered consumer behavior in the U.S. over the past twenty years. Before inexpensive TVs made their way into electronic superstores, a typical TV would last years. Today, TVs are considered disposable and are easily replaceable. Should import prices rise, consumers might reconsider replacing products regularly, and instead maintain existing products for longer periods. (Source: Department of Commerce)

 

Market Returns: All data is indicative of total return which includes capital gain/loss and reinvested dividends for noted period. Index data sources; MSCI, DJ-UBSCI, WTI, IDC, S&P. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.