W.P. "Bill" Atkinson, III

Certified Financial Planner TM / Attorney

Access Financial Resources, Inc.

3621 NW 63rd Street, Suite A1

Oklahoma City, OK  73116

(405) 848-9826

www.afradvice.com / bill@apaplans.com

July 2023
Market Update
(all values as of 09.30.2024)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 42,330
S&P 500 5,762
Nasdaq 18,189

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.66%
10 Yr Treasury 3.81%
10 Yr Municipal 2.63%
High Yield 6.66%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 12.31%
S&P 500 20.81%
Nasdaq 21.17%
MSCI-EAFE 12.90%
MSCI-Europe 12.10%
MSCI-Pacific 13.80%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 16.80%
 
US Agg Bond 4.44%
US Corp Bond 5.32%
US Gov’t Bond 4.39%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 2,657
Silver 31.48
Oil (WTI) 68.27

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.11
Dollar / Pound 1.33
Yen / Dollar 142.21
Canadian /Dollar 0.73
 

Macro Overview

Equity markets reacted to uncertainty in June as major indices saw an increase in volatility. Earnings continue to be a critical focal point as companies struggle to maintain elevated prices while consumer confidence has begun to erode.

The Federal Reserve has essentially signaled that it is more concerned about combating inflation than the negative consequences of continued rising rates on the economy.

A growing discussion among economists is whether the economy will experience a soft landing, meaning that the recent Fed rate increases will not evolve into a recession. Economists view such a recessionary environment as a hard landing, which is when job expansion and economic growth are hindered.

Once each year, the Federal Reserve conducts a test to assess how large banks are likely to perform under hypothetical economic conditions. The results of the most recent tests revealed that all the major banking institutions passed this year’s stress test. The tests assumed a hypothetical 10% unemployment rate and a 40% drop in commercial real estate prices.

Yields on short-term bonds rose in June as the Fed indicated it intends to raise rates at least two more instances this year. Longer-term bond yields remained below shorter-term bond yields as confidence in future economic growth faltered.

Inflation expectations among consumers continue to dissipate worldwide as inflation expectations throughout European and Pacific Rim countries head downward. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects a decrease in GDP growth in the U.S. as domestic economic growth recedes.

The average age in the U.S. increased to a historic high in 2022, reaching a median age of 38.9 years. The average age has steadily risen over the past decades, primarily due to declining birth rates coupled with longer life spans over the past 20 years.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Treasury, U.S. Labor Department

 
Real wages have decreased for 26 consecutive months

Fed Continues Rate Hikes – Fixed Income Overview

Continuing inflation concerns have led the Fed to raise rates as the bond market grapples with the increases. Short-term bond yields have risen relative to long-term bond yields as expectations are that interest rates will be lower in the future. The yield on the 2-year Treasury ended June at 4.87%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 3.81% at the end of the month.

Elevated yields continue to hamper housing with higher mortgage rates and consumer loans. Expectations of easing economic growth and lessening inflation have kept longer-term bond yields lower.(Sources: Treasury, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve)

Equity Volatility Increases – Domestic Stocks Overview

Many analysts view the recent rise in equities as a momentum rally, meaning that only a few companies have been leading the overall rise in the market. Earnings are becoming extremely critical as companies struggle to maintain higher prices as consumer demand weakens for non-necessities.

A concentration of companies in select sectors has thus far led the market this year, with technology and consumer discretionary stocks exhibiting the largest contribution. The utilities and energy sectors lagged as rising rates and decreasing commodity prices hindered the sectors. (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, Dow Jones)

Wages Lag Behind Inflation In Nearly All U.S. Cities – Employment Update

Real wages, or workers’ pay adjusted for inflation, have decreased for 26 consecutive months. Even when nominal wage growth has been significant, inflation has surpassed it and diminished workers’ purchasing power for over two years.

Most major American cities saw declines in post-inflation wages as of May 2023, other than minuscule increases in Dallas, San Francisco, and Houston. The worst metropolitan wage decrease is in Miami, whose workers saw a 10% drop in post-inflation pay due to 9% inflation and nominal wage contractions. Workers in Tampa Bay, San Diego, Phoenix, and Chicago are all seeing their inflation-adjusted wages fall by over 3% due to high inflation, despite all of these cities exhibiting nominal wage growth.

Stubborn inflation is weighing on workers, who are also reportedly exhibiting historically high uncertainty in their year-ahead wages, according to the New York Federal Reserve. Workers’ uncertainty in their future wages reflects their faith in the strength of the job market and the economy as a whole. With wages consistently losing purchasing power and prices increasing for many consumers, this uncertainty substantially influences spending habits and personal financial decisions.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 
job openings in food services fell 16% from last year

Paper Check Fraud on The Rise – Consumer Awareness

Despite rising electronic deposits and checks, paper checks remain a common way to pay rent, utilities, donations, and taxes. However, fraud increasingly targets paper checks, raising the risks of writing a check.

Such fraud can occur in a wide variety of ways, including the targeting of mailboxes where checks lay susceptible. Most of these tactics are low-tech and primarily target a more elderly population that relies heavily on paper checks. Americans sent out 11.2 billion checks in 2021 alone. Banks report that check fraud has risen significantly, with credit card fraud the next highest form.

Certain methods could prevent check fraud. Individuals and businesses should limit the number of written checks to reduce the chances of a check being stolen. Experts recommend using gel ink pens rather than ballpoint pens to make removing the ink with chemicals more difficult. Additionally, always keep an eye on any unusual transactions and report them as soon as possible to your bank.

Sources: Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S., U.S. Treasury Department

People Are Eating In Instead of Going Out – Restaurant Trends

The restaurant industry continues to experience turbulence that originated with the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns. In 2020, restaurant performance reached historic lows as people suddenly stopped ordering from restaurants due to unforeseen financial constraints and fears of disease. This completely reversed in 2021, as people flocked to restaurants at historically high rates after lockdowns ended.

However, the restaurant industry has seen demand die down immensely from these 2021 highs, with restaurant performance entering a period of contraction for the first time since January 2021. In May, restaurant performance fell 1.3% from its level in April and ended 28 months of expansion in the restaurant industry. Customer traffic in restaurants also slid below the cutoff for growth, reaching levels not seen since February 2021.

Spending on food services is also exhibiting a sharp decline, reaching 26-month lows as the surge in demand brought about by the end of COVID-19 lockdowns has evaporated. The peaks of 2021 spending growth, which reached as high as 88% yearly growth, have now mellowed to just 1% annual growth. This has led to many restaurants halting hiring, with job openings in food services falling 16% from last year.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association

 
pending home sales fell 5.2%, the largest decrease since September

New Home Sales Grow as Existing Home Sales Drop – Housing Market Update

With hiking mortgage rates and historically high home prices, home sales have seen tumultuous recent months as the supply and demand for houses fluctuate. Recent data show that pending home sales are declining, as are existing home sales.

This trend reflects the lack of homeowners who wish to sell their homes, primarily due to not taking on a new mortgage at a higher rate. Many homeowners currently pay mortgages with rates between 2% and 4% due to low mortgage rates between 2019 and 2022. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate did not surpass 4% for 33 months during this period. Mortgage rates surpassed 7% in October 2022 and are currently at 6.8% for a 30-year fixed-conforming loan, scaring away many potential homebuyers who already own a property.

In March alone, pending home sales dropped 5.2%, their largest decrease since last September. These trends can be seen in existing home sales, which have dropped by over 2 million monthly sales since January 2022. With fewer existing homes up for sale, many potential homebuyers are instead looking into new homes. This can be seen in new home sales, which increased by 40% since June 2022, reaching a 14-month high. While sales across the board are still down from the heights of the pandemic, existing homes are seeing stagnant sales and new homes are rising in popularity.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors