W.P. "Bill" Atkinson, III

Certified Financial Planner TM / Attorney

Access Financial Resources, Inc.

3621 NW 63rd Street, Suite A1

Oklahoma City, OK  73116

(405) 848-9826

www.afradvice.com / bill@apaplans.com

July 2025
Market Update
(all values as of 06.30.2025)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 44,094
S&P 500 6,204
Nasdaq 20,369

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.72%
10 Yr Treasury 4.24%
10 Yr Municipal 3.21%
High Yield 6.80%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 3.64%
S&P 500 5.50%
Nasdaq 5.48%
MSCI-EAFE 17.37%
MSCI-Europe 20.67%
MSCI-Pacific 11.15%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 13.70%
 
US Agg Bond 4.02%
US Corp Bond 4.17%
US Gov’t Bond 3.95%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 3,319
Silver 36.32
Oil (WTI) 64.98

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.17
Dollar / Pound 1.37
Yen / Dollar 144.61
Canadian /Dollar 0.73

Macro Overview

Trade tensions continued as uncertainty surrounding the implementation of tariffs in early July drove volatility higher. Developed and emerging market trading partners including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and South Africa were part of the most recent trade negotiations. An executive order was signed in early July that will hold off new tariff rates until August 1st for all nations facing reciprocal tariffs.

Duties on imports generated $37.8 billion in revenue for the U.S. in April and May, after newly imposed tariffs became effective on steel, aluminum, cars and numerous goods from China, Mexico and Canada. Duties collected in May made up 6% of the government’s monthly income and increased 42% from the $15.6 billion the U.S. received in April and $22 billion collected in May. Some economists perceive any inflationary effects from tariffs to bring about a one-time increase in prices, as opposed to a continual increase in prices. Some retailers and importers are absorbing newly imposed tariff costs, while others are passing along the tariffs in the form of higher prices to consumers.

Geopolitical tensions in June elevated financial market volatility resulting in a demand for gold and foreign currencies. The dollar and treasuries have seen less demand recently, yet demand has been increasing for foreign currencies and other investment vehicles. Recent trade tensions have shifted holdings of U.S. Treasuries as large trading partners such as Canada and China have shed positions while Japan and Norway have accumulated positions. The Treasury market has become a focal point as trade negotiations continue, and countries adjust holdings based on exposure to U.S. debt and currency fluctuations.

A stronger than expected employment market is weighing on the Fed’s decision to lower rates. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, as jobs in healthcare and education rose and manufacturing jobs fell. The Fed’s hesitancy stems from the threat of higher wages which can be considered inflationary as workers spend more throughout the economy.

Passage of The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), also known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2025, will permanently extend the individual tax rates signed into law in 2017, which were originally set to expire at the end of 2025. Numerous government programs as well as Medicaid will see the implementation of new provisions, such as the requirement for individuals aged 19-64 enrolled in Medicaid to demonstrate they are working or participating in qualifying activities for at least 80 hours per month. Certain groups are exempt from these requirements, including parents of dependent children and those with disabilities, substance use disorder, or serious medical conditions.

The administration is seeking to ban certain foreign entities from buying farmland in the United States as a precaution, in order to avoid any national-security risk. Chinese owned entities currently own approximately 300,000 acres of U.S. farmland in over 12 states. (Sources: Federal Reserve, Treasury Dept., Labor Dept., USDA)

 
Tariffs: The Hidden Tax America Deserves
Tariffs: The Hidden Tax America Deserves
Trump’s renewed tariff strategy is drawing fire from economists and business leaders—but it’s more than trade policy; it’s backdoor tax policy. Tariffs bypass Congress, don’t appear on paychecks, and are sold as patriotism, yet they quietly drain the economy, misallocate capital, and hinder growth. In a nation unwilling to confront the cost of its own spending, tariffs have become the politically convenient, economically damaging alternative to honest taxation.
Who Actually Pays? – Often, it’s American consumers. According to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI): Nike is projecting $1 billion in tariff-related costs and will raise prices accordingly; Best Buy, PepsiCo, and P&G have all warned of higher consumer prices and weaker forecasts. A majority (54%) of U.S. companies in a 2025 Allianz survey are passing the costs straight to consumers. But it’s not always Americans footing the bill.
Japan’s Auto Industry Is Eating the Cost—for Now – According to Japanese government disclosures, Trump’s auto tariffs are being absorbed by the exporters: U.S. imports of Japanese cars dropped 24.7% by value, but just 3.9% by volume—meaning Japanese firms cut prices rather than pass the cost to buyers. Toyota increased prices by only ~$270 per vehicle. However, Honda and Nissan are eating losses to keep market share.
This is textbook price elasticity. When demand is strong and market access is critical, exporters will take the hit—at least in the short run. But margins can only stretch so far. Eventually, someone always pays.
Austrian Economics: Temporary Tactic, Not Long-Term Strategy – From an Austrian standpoint: Tariffs distort prices, misallocate capital, and interfere with voluntary exchange. They reward the politically connected and protect inefficient producers. They represent coercive intervention in the market, even if they’re directed at foreign players. That said, there’s a narrow justification worth considering: Tariffs can be used temporarily as leverage against foreign nations that use tariffs, quotas, and subsidies themselves. But only if they lead to true liberalization—not permanent protectionism. In that light, Trump’s tariffs might be tolerable as a negotiating weapon—but only if they’re tied to measurable goals and sunset provisions. Otherwise, they’re just economic nationalism wrapped in red tape and red ink.
The Hard Truth: Americans Want Benefits Without Paying for Them – This is the core of the issue: Americans demand Social Security, Medicare, defense, infrastructure, subsidies, loan forgiveness, and more. But they recoil at the idea of paying higher taxes. So politicians resort to tariffs—a tax they can sneak in through the back door. You can’t have $6 trillion federal budgets and “no new taxes.” Tariffs are what happen when fiscal immaturity meets political cowardice. In that sense, they’re not just a policy tool. They’re a mirror.
Bottom Line
Tariffs are what you get when the electorate wants big government without the bill.
Sources: Competitive Enterprise Institute – Trump Tariffs: Price Increases and Forecast Cuts; ZeroHedge – Japan Admits Automakers Are Paying Trump Tariff Costs; The Guardian – Allianz Survey: 54% of U.S. Companies Passing on Costs; Barron’s – CFO Survey: Lower Growth Expectations Due to Tariffs
 
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Highlights

One Big Beautiful Bill Act Highlights

Estate Tax Exclusion: Increases to $15 million for single filers and $30 million for married filers in 2026, and with further inflation-indexed increases after 2026. Different from prior estate tax exclusion provisions in that the bill made this increase “permanent” in the sense that no automatic sunset or expiration date has been imposed. The current exemption for individuals of $13.61 million and $27.22 million for married couples, was set to be reduced by half at the end of 2025.

Interest Deduction On Auto Loans: Interest on auto loans deductible, yet applicable to only new autos with final assembly in the U.S. for tax years 2025 – 2028. Deduction limited to $10,000 and phases out when income exceeds $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for joint filers.

Tax On Overtime Pay: This deduction, capped at $12,500 for individuals and $25,000 for joint filers, phases out for higher earners and is set to expire on December 31, 2028. While it doesn’t eliminate taxes on overtime, it provides a tax break for those working extra hours, potentially increasing take-home pay.

Trump Accounts / MAGA Accounts: From 2025 to 2028, U.S.-born newborns will receive a $1,000 government-funded, tax-deferred investment account (“Trump Account”) tracking a stock index. Families can contribute up to $5,000 annually. Withdrawals are limited before age 30—permitted at 18 and 25 for approved uses (e.g., education, business), and unrestricted at 30. Earnings are taxed as ordinary income; contributions are not tax-deductible. Accounts are managed by parents/guardians until age 18.

Expanded 529 Plan Provisions: The bill expands the definition of qualified expenses for 529 plans beyond traditional higher education costs and K–12 tuition to include a wider range of educational and career development opportunities such as vocational schools, trade schools, and technical schools. Newly eligible expenses include tuition, books, fees, exam costs, and supplies for workforce, on-the-job training, and continuing education programs.
The $10,000 per-year limit for K–12 tuition and the $10,000 lifetime limit for student loan repayments remain in place. Federal tax treatment of 529 plan growth, as well as in-state tax deductions and credits, are unchanged.

Tax on Social Security: The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), also known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2025, does not actually eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, instead, it provides a temporary, income-based deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older. The deduction is $6,000 per individual and phases out for those with higher incomes over $75,000 for single filers, $150,000 for joint filers. The deduction is not limited to those receiving Social Security benefits, it also applies to all seniors within the specified income limits. The deduction is temporary and set to expire at the end of 2028. The OBBB does not make any changes to the Social Security program itself, such as the benefits structure or eligibility requirements.

StableCoins Evolving To Become More Accepted: The GENIUS Act of 2025 establishes the first comprehensive federal framework for regulating stablecoins in the U.S., setting rules for issuance, backing, and oversight. It aims to integrate stablecoins into mainstream banking, offering legal clarity and consumer protection. (Sources: Tax Foundation, SSA.gov, TheWhiteHouse.gov)

 
1 Million Illegal Immigrants Gone Since January
1 Million Illegal Immigrants Gone Since January
A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) reveals that the U.S. illegal immigrant population dropped by approximately 1 million people between January and May 2025. This marks one of the steepest short-term declines on record—and the reason is clear: enforcement is back.
What the Numbers Say:
Metric
January 2025
May 2025
Change
Foreign-born population (primarily illegal)
15.8 million
14.8 million
↓ 1.0 million
The biggest declines were among non-citizens from Latin America who entered the U.S. after 1980—CIS uses this as a reliable proxy for estimating illegal presence. The drop is not a rounding error. It’s real.
What’s Driving the Decline?
  1. Self-Deportation Is Working
    Many left voluntarily in response to:
    • Increased ICE activity
    • Employer crackdowns
    • Restart of the “CBP One” flight program (free flights + $1,000 cash bonus)
  2. Enforcement Is Back in Play
    • Mass deportations have resumed.
    • “No-match” letters are being used again—flagging workers whose Social Security numbers don’t match government records.
    • Worksite raids are up.
  3. Fear Is a Deterrent
    Some portion of the decline may be due to underreporting in Census data—but even allowing for that, the scale of the drop indicates a real population shift.
Economic and Social Impact: A smaller illegal labor force affects several areas:
Whether you view this through the lens of national security, the rule of law, or labor economics, the result is undeniable: enforcement changes behavior.
Policy Matters: This didn’t happen on its own. Trump’s administration revived dormant enforcement tools. When the executive branch signals it will uphold immigration law, people respond—by leaving, not coming, or not overstaying. The key takeaway: policy has consequences. Open borders swell the illegal population. Enforcement shrinks it.