Michael McCormick

5 West Mendenhall, Ste 202 | Bozeman, MT 59715

406.920.1682  mike@mccormickfinancialadvisors.com

Sustainable Income Planning | Investments | Retirement

2026 MFA Spring Newsletter - The Endless Spring
Market Update
(all values as of 04.30.2026)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 49,652
S&P 500 7,209
Nasdaq 24,892

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.88%
10 Yr Treasury 4.40%
10 Yr Municipal 2.96%
High Yield 6.87%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 3.31%
S&P 500 5.31%
Nasdaq 7.10%
MSCI-EAFE 5.04%
MSCI-Europe 2.95%
MSCI-Far East 9.09%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 13.94%
 
US Agg Bond 0.07%
US Corp Bond -0.09%
US Gov’t Bond -0.08%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 4,641
Silver 74.65
Oil (WTI) 105.76

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.16
Dollar / Pound 1.34
Yen / Dollar 159.95
Canadian /Dollar 0.73

Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel

Dear Friends,

It seems that nothing rattles the stock market these days!  Perhaps that has changed in the short time since writing this, but somehow, I suspect we are still near record highs and valuations are stretched on everything from stocks to real estate to the expensive lunch you just enjoyed.  But how???  How can the market do what few have been expecting and not violently correct because of (insert your worry here).  The short answer is that underneath it all, the US economy is healthy, well capitalized, and AI is not a fad.  But even more so, there are too many dollars looking for too few places to grow.  Yes, deficit spending is a big leg of the stool we are standing on as we rise to new highs.  For every $1 the U.S. collects in taxes and tariffs, it will spend $1.33 this year.   It’s not likely to change so long as politicians want our vote.

Money Supply equals Stock Demand – for now.

Pay Attention to the new Montana Property Tax Rates

A new Homestead and Long-Term Rental tax rate structure is providing Property Tax relief for less expensive primary residences and long-term rentals.  However, to offset this, rates are jumping to uncomfortable levels for properties worth more than about $1.8M and for all short-term rentals and second homes.  To obtain these lower rates (if you are able) you must register your property correctly with the MT Dept of Revenue.  If you filed for your property tax refund last year you should be covered.

Properties that do not qualify as a primary residence or long-term rental (second homes, vacation properties, and short-term rentals) will be taxed at a flat 1.9% of full assessed value! Previously in 2025, the top rate was 1.1% and that was only for the value in excess of $400,000.  We expect this to 1) have a significant effect on real estate in our area and 2) be challenged in the courts aggressively.  In the meantime, be sure to have your properties registered correctly. revenue.mt.gov

 
the average credit card interest rate is approximately 22%

World’s Largest Energy Producer Has A Buffer – Energy Markets Overview

The Unites States is currently the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, making it an indispensable provider of energy to countries throughout the globe. The disruption of oil and liquid natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has propelled energy prices higher throughout the globe. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait, heading to Europe, Asia, and the U.S. Imported oil into the U.S. is brought in for the primary purpose of refinement, since the U.S. refines approximately 20% of the world’s oil.

Higher oil prices abroad have led to higher gasoline prices in the U.S. because of supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Historically, extended supply disruptions have been mitigated in the U.S. because of the country’s ability to enhance drilling and production when needed. Ironically, elevated oil prices encourage America oil drillers and producers to increase output because of expanding profit margins.

The technology utilized by American energy companies in the U.S. is currently unparalleled relative to the rest of the world. Advancements in hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, along with developments in horizontal drilling have placed the U.S. at the forefront of technological achievements in oil extraction. Interestingly enough, natural gas is a byproduct of fracking, producing roughly 75% of total natural gas production.

Sources: U.S. Dept. of Energy, International Energy Agency

 

 
18 states were identified with bringing in new residents in 2024

Dollar’s Decline in 2025 Was Largest Since 2017 – Currency Overview

In 2025, the U.S. dollar had a notably weak year and under performed most other major currencies, with broad indexes showing its largest annual drop since 2017 and one of the steepest declines in decades.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Swedish krona), fell roughly 9.5% in 2025, the largest drop since 2017. Earlier in the year, the dollar had been down about 11%, marking the biggest first‑half loss since the 1970s. 
Factors affecting the dollar in 2025 include slower U.S. growth expectations, high fiscal deficits, policy uncertainty regarding tariffs, political tensions, and shifting global capital flows away from U.S. assets. Easing of U.S. interest rates also reduced the yield advantage of dollar assets, making holding the dollar less attractive relative to other major currencies.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

What Are Rare Earth Materials – Commodities Review

Rare earth materials are minerals or compounds that contain one or more rare earth elements, which are comprised of 17 metallic elements used extensively in modern technologies. These materials are important because they provide unique magnetic, optical, and catalytic properties that are hard to substitute with numerous high-tech applications.

These elements are actually relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust, but are rarely found in concentrated deposits, which makes mining and separation difficult.
The term “rare earth” comes from the early discovery of these elements in unusual mineral “earths” and from the scarcity of economically viable deposits, not from a true rarity in nature.

Rare earth materials are essential in magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles, in smartphone components, and in computer hard drives. They also appear in glass polishing powders, catalysts for oil refining and car exhaust treatment, phosphors in LED and fluorescent lighting, and components for lasers and fiber-optic communication. Rare earth materials are used throughout modern technology, mainly for powerful magnets, specialized lighting, displays, and advanced electronics. Their unique magnetic and optical properties make many devices smaller, more efficient, and more energy‑saving than would otherwise be possible.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Interior, CIA World Factbook

 

 
the U.S. refines approximately 20% of the world’s oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully you have already filed your Homestead Exemption with MT Department of Revenue.  This will lock in some level of savings as your property tax rates are set to possibly skyrocket!  If not, hurry up because the deadline to do this for 2026 is March 20th.  revenue.mt.gov

About Us

Our clients enjoy the feeling of having their financial lives kept in order.  Freedom from worry comes from working with an experienced advisor that understands your entire financial life and is accessible and attentive to your needs.  As a fiduciary, Mike is unable to receive commissions from financial products and free to make recommendations that are unbiased by Wall Street.  With over a decade of experience caring for a small family of clients, our specialties are preserving wealth and generating sustainable income.  Our average client net worth ranges from $5 to $30 Million.  Go outside, we’ve got this.

Cancel or move to digital?  mike@mccormickfinancialadvisors.com with your preference.  No worries!