Ocean Park Capital Management
2503 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90405
Main: 310.392.7300
Daily Performance Line: 310.281.8577
| Dow Jones | 46,397 |
| S&P 500 | 6,688 |
| Nasdaq | 22,660 |
| 2 Yr Treasury | 3.60% |
| 10 Yr Treasury | 4.16% |
| 10 Yr Municipal | 2.92% |
| High Yield | 6.56% |
| Dow Jones | 9.06% |
| S&P 500 | 13.72% |
| Nasdaq | 17.34% |
| MSCI-EAFE | 22.34% |
| MSCI-Europe | 24.64% |
| MSCI-Pacific | 17.97% |
| MSCI-Emg Mkt | 25.16% |
| US Agg Bond | 6.13% |
| US Corp Bond | 6.88% |
| US Gov’t Bond | 5.93% |
| Gold | 3,882 |
| Silver | 46.77 |
| Oil (WTI) | 62.52 |
| Dollar / Euro | 1.17 |
| Dollar / Pound | 1.34 |
| Yen / Dollar | 148.71 |
| Canadian /Dollar | 0.71 |
After five straight months of gains, stocks declined across the board in April. Ocean Park Investors Fund fell 5.21%*, while the S&P 500 fell 4.16% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 4.41%. The fund’s technology and consumer stocks, which powered our recent outperformance, sustained most of the decline. We view this as a normal feature of the ebb and flow of market activity, and it does not affect our long-term strategy.
During April, we increased positions in the producer durables sector and modestly reduced positions in the consumer discretionary and service sector and the technology sector. Notable changes were the sale of IBM, 3M, and Sherwin Williams on lackluster earnings. We replaced them with better prospects, including Applied Materials, Eaton, Spotify, and Western Digital. We finished the month at about 95% net long, down from about 97% in March.
Daily updates on our activity are available on our Results Line, at 310-281-8577, and current information is also maintained on our website at www.oceanparkcapital.com. To gain access to the site enter password opcap.
*These results are pro forma. Actual results for most investors will vary. See additional disclosures on page 4. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ten of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 lost ground in April, with utilities the only gainer and real estate the worst loser. Value and growth stocks performed about evenly. Volatility increased, as the S&P 500 moved more than 1% on 7 of 22 trading days.
First quarter earnings reported in April were strong. With 46% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 77% beat consensus earnings expectations, equal to the 5-year average. However, only 60% beat consensus revenue expectations which is below the five-year average of 69%.
The forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 at month end ticked down to 20.0, still rich and above the 5-year average of 19.1.
Macro Overview
Headlines in April reflected a generally healthy economy. Employment gains were better than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Durable goods orders rose at the fastest pace since November and manufacturing rose at the fastest pace since April 2022.
But for the stock market, the key economic factor these days is inflation and the news was not encouraging. The Consumer Price Index reported in April showed an increase of 3.5% year-over-year, which was higher than the 3.2% reported in March and the 3.1% reported in February. Markets reacted negatively, fearing that prices may now be trending higher rather than lower.
The other side of the inflation coin is speculation about interest rate cuts. The Fed has made clear that it requires an unequivocal downtrend in inflation before it will consider rate cuts. After the CPI report, Chairman Powell indicated that rate cuts “are likely to take longer than expected.” Analysts have largely abandoned hope for a rate cut in June, and many now expect the Fed to wait until September or longer.
Performance data for OPI reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings on the fund’s assets. Performance data for the major indices reflect only changes in the value of those indices, and would be higher if dividends were included. However, the index data do not reflect fees that would be paid to index fund managers and transaction costs that would be incurred when their component stocks are bought or sold, while OPI’s data do reflect quarterly fees and expenses incurred by the fund. The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.