Michael McCormick
5 West Mendenhall, Ste 202 | Bozeman, MT 59715
406.920.1682 mike@mccormickfinancialadvisors.com
Sustainable Income Planning | Investments | Retirement
Dow Jones | 40,669 |
S&P 500 | 5,569 |
Nasdaq | 17,446 |
2 Yr Treasury | 3.60% |
10 Yr Treasury | 4.17% |
10 Yr Municipal | 3.36% |
High Yield | 7.69% |
Dow Jones | -4.41% |
S&P 500 | -5.31% |
Nasdaq | -9.65% |
MSCI-EAFE | 12.00% |
MSCI-Europe | 15.70% |
MSCI-Pacific | 5.80% |
MSCI-Emg Mkt | 4.40% |
US Agg Bond | 3.18% |
US Corp Bond | 2.27% |
US Gov’t Bond | 3.13% |
Gold | 3,298 |
Silver | 32.78 |
Oil (WTI) | 58.22 |
Dollar / Euro | 1.13 |
Dollar / Pound | 1.34 |
Yen / Dollar | 142.35 |
Canadian /Dollar | 0.72 |
Mr. Toad, Market Volatility, and What It Means for Your Financial Plan
Dear Friends,
One of my favorite rides at Disneyland has always been Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride (with Pirates of the Caribbean a close second—and, yes, apparently all I wanted as a kid was It’s a Small World). The hapless Mr. Toad takes you on a harrowing car ride full of near crashes and at the end delivers you to where you began the joyride, but as an adult, the experience feels a bit different: kidney bruising jolts, a mild barfy taste in your mouth, and the realization that you didn’t actually get anywhere.
This year, watching the stock market has felt a lot like that: unpredictable twists, sudden turns, and a feeling that we’re somehow back where we started—just a little more battered.
Market volatility like this is not unusual. After a long stretch of steady gains, it was inevitable that some sort of disruption—unseen by most—would return a sense of fear to the investing world. That disruption has been driven by self-imposed geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties. And while we may now better understand the causes, we remain deep in the fog when it comes to knowing how or when it will clear.
Frankly, in my career, I’ve never felt less certain about the short-term direction of the market. But that’s not a reason to panic—it’s a reminder of why long-term discipline matters more than ever.
The strongest strategy remains unchanged:
Diversify consistently with simple investments that are not binding
Stay invested over time regardless of the news
Keep enough cash available to weather short-term storms
These principles aren’t flashy, but they work.
In this issue we talk about things that have a big impact on your financial life including creeping taxes that you might not expect, like property taxes and tariffs. We also remind ourselves how most of these taxes are ultimately going towards Social Security and Medicare, two expenses that are also creeping higher.
Property Taxes have grown over 10%
Becoming a homeowner is an exciting milestone, but it comes with less glamorous baggage: property taxes. According to a LendingTree analysis, median property taxes in the U.S. rose by an average of 10.4% between 2021 and 2023 (the latest year of available data). Property taxes vary significantly across the 50 largest metros, ranging from $1,091 to $9,937. Across the U.S., homeowners pay a median property tax of $2,969 annually. That’s $247 a month. Here in Bozeman, I bet it’s a fair bit higher.
Largest Trading Partners With U.S. – Global Trade Overview
The onslaught of tariffs has been widespread, affecting products from nearly every trading partner of the U.S. According to UN Trade & Development data, global trade hit a record high of nearly $33 trillion in 2024, up $1 trillion from 2023. In 2023, the United States’ top trade partners, based on combined import and export values, were Mexico, Canada, and China, with nearly $798 billion, $773 billion, and $575 billion in goods and services, respectively.
The second largest trading partner with the U.S. is ASEAN, the aggregation of South Asian Nations including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Other major trading partners also saw tremendous trading activity in 2024, including Japan, Germany and South Korea.
Brief History of Tariffs – Before the implementation of income taxes, tariffs were the main source of revenue for the United States. Tariffs have been a source of revenue for the U.S. government since its inception over 200 years ago. Tariffs were initially implemented not just as a source of revenue, but also to reduce foreign competition and a growing trade deficit. Rapid expansion and the onset of industrialization in the late 1800s was achieved with the help of tariffs.
Congress ratified the 16th amendment in 1913 to initiate the collection of federal income taxes that same year, allowing the government to have consistent revenue from taxpayers while alleviating the need for elevated tariffs. Less than 1% of Americans had to pay income taxes in its earliest days. As income tax revenue increased over the decades, a reliance on revenue from tariffs gradually declined. Global trade also expanded with the U.S. as the country’s trade policies became less protectionist and more amenable to trade. (Sources: Office of the Historian, United States Department of State)
Americans Claiming Social Security Sooner – Retirement Planning
Americans are claiming their Social Security benefits earlier, rather than waiting until full retirement age. Social Security Administration data reveals that age 62 is now the most popular age for Americans to start receiving their benefits, which is also the earliest age that benefits can begin. The administration also reports that the average age for recipients is 65, and 70 is the least common age to start taking benefits.
For decades it has been suggested that Social Security recipients should not begin benefits until age 70 in order to receive the maximum benefit. There are various reasons to either take benefits sooner or later, including health, financial circumstances, work status, and tax implications.
The Financial State of Medicare – Healthcare in Retirement
Social Security and Medicare account for nearly 40% of all federal spending excluding interest on the national debt, and within a decade the Congressional Budget Office predicts that will rise to roughly half. Both programs face financial difficulty going forward, even with additional taxes, lower expenditures, or benefit cuts. Medicare’s primary source of funding comes from payroll taxes, income from the taxation of Social Security benefits, and income from a 3.8 percent surtax on investment income of high-income individuals. An increase among these would help mitigate any depletion of funds for the program.
(Source: Social Security Administration, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
Looking to reduce your taxes through charitable giving? If you received a windfall that is putting you in a higher bracket, you may be able to give to causes you care about and save money on taxes at the same time. Call us if you want to learn more.
About Us
Our clients enjoy the feeling of having their financial lives kept in order. Freedom from worry comes from working with an experienced advisor that understands your entire financial life and is accessible and attentive to your needs. As a fiduciary, Mike is unable to receive commissions from financial products and free to make recommendations that are unbiased by Wall Street. With decades of experience caring for a small family of clients, our specialties are preserving wealth and generating sustainable income. Our average client net worth ranges from $5 to $50 Million. Go outside, we’ve got this.
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