Ocean Park Capital Management

2503 Main Street

Santa Monica, CA 90405

Main: 310.392.7300

Daily Performance Line:  310.281.8577

October 2024
Market Update
(all values as of 10.31.2025)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 47,562
S&P 500 6,840
Nasdaq 23,724

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 3.60%
10 Yr Treasury 4.11%
10 Yr Municipal 2.73%
High Yield 6.53%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 11.80%
S&P 500 16.30%
Nasdaq 22.86%
MSCI-EAFE 23.69%
MSCI-Europe 25.44%
MSCI-Pacific 25.83%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 30.32%
 
US Agg Bond 6.80%
US Corp Bond 7.29%
US Gov’t Bond 6.51%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 4,013
Silver 48.25
Oil (WTI) 60.88

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.15
Dollar / Pound 1.31
Yen / Dollar 153.64
Canadian /Dollar 0.71

Portfolio Overview

While stock market indices declined modestly in October, Ocean Park Investors Fund posted a solid gain.  For the month, the fund added 2.66%* while the S&P 500 lost 0.99% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.52%.  The technology sector was generally weak but the fund’s technology stocks were our best performers, led by Astera Labs which rose 34%.

During the month, we reduced positions in the technology and producer durables sectors and increased positions in the autos and transportation sector and the consumer staples sector.  In anticipation of disappointing earnings, we sold PNC Financial Services, Domino’s Pizza, and Amphenol Corporation.  We initiated new positions in United Airlines and Booking Holdings (driven by expectations of strong earnings supported by robust global travel demand), Reddit Inc. (recognizing growth potential from its expanding user base and engagement), and Shake Shack (aiming to capture strength in the fast-casual dining market.) In addition, we increased our position in Astera Labs, reflecting confidence in positive developments in their semiconductor and AI solutions.  These trades reflect our commitment to identifying opportunities for the fund to benefit from potential earnings surprises across a diverse range of sectors.  We finished the month at about 94% net long, down from about 98% in September.

*These results are pro forma. Actual results for most investors will vary. See additional disclosures on page 4. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Daily updates on our activity are available on our Results Line, at 310-281-8577, and current information is also maintained on our website at www.oceanparkcapital.com. To gain access to the site enter password opcap.

 
Equity Overview

Equity Overview

Nine of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 declined in October, with financials the best gainer and health care the worst loser.  Volatility was light as the S&P 500 moved more than 1% on only 2 of 23 trading days, compared with 5 of 20 trading days in September.  Growth stocks outperformed value stocks.

Third quarter earnings reported in October were solid, but modestly below historical averages.  With 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 75% beat consensus earnings expectations and 60% beat consensus revenue expectations.  In both cases, these results were below the one-year and five-year beat rates.  Earnings beats averaged 4.6% above expectations, which also fell below the one-year and five-year numbers.

The 12-month forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 at month’s end was 21.3, above the 5-year average of 19.6.

 

 

 
Macro Overview

Macro Overview

Economic data released in October were promising.  Employment was strong as payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs versus expectations of 150,000 and unemployment dipped to 4.1%.  Inflation news was positive as the CPI declined year-over year from 2.5% to 2.4% (although the core CPI excluding food and energy rose from 3.2% to 3.3%.)  The Commerce Department’s first estimate of third quarter GDP growth was 2.8%, slightly below analyst expectations of 2.9% but still respectable.

In the big picture, we are in a period of declining interest rates, modest inflation, and decent growth, a combination which is generally bullish for stocks.

 

 
Additional Disclosures

Additional Disclosures

Performance data for OPI reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings on the fund’s assets.  Performance data for the major indices reflect only changes in the value of those indices, and would be higher if dividends were included. However, the index data do not reflect fees that would be paid to index fund managers and transaction costs that would be incurred when their component stocks are bought or sold, while OPI’s data do reflect quarterly fees and expenses incurred by the fund.  The information provided is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not warranted. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. The views and strategies discussed herein may not be appropriate and/or suitable for all investors. This material is meant solely for informational purposes, and is not intended to suffice as any type of accounting, legal, tax, or estate planning advice. Any and all forecasts mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations.

 

Ocean Park Capital Management · 2503 Main Street · Santa Monica CA 90405 · 310-392-7300