Equities Have Best January Since 1989 – Equity Market Update

Equity markets rebounded in January erasing volatility residue from the end of 2018. Earnings released during the month were mixed but yielded optimism for various sectors and industries. January results posted the best beginning of any year since 1989, a dramatic reversal from what was the worst December since 1931.

Major stock indices experienced among the most dramatic daily point swings ever in January as major indices were driven by bearish sentiment to bullish sentiment in a matter of hours. Such extremes create confusion among traders and analysts, making it difficult to determine where valuations and stock prices might be headed.

Some analysts believe that equities are being driven by stock selection versus economic data as a focus on earnings intensifies with economic data becoming muted. A growing demand for value stocks occurred in January as dividends and balance sheets became sought after rather than growth. (Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg)

Rates Head Lower While Fed Holds Steady – Fixed Income Update

Overall bond prices rose in January as the prospect of the Fed raising rates in 2019 considerably lessened. The Fed announced that it would refrain from its previous strategy of increasing short-term rates as well as hold off on shrinking its balance sheet. Both monetary tactics are expected to keep interest rates at current levels without any additional increases just yet.

Interest rates fell in January as the Federal Reserve signaled that it would hold off on additional rate increases until economic data warranted a rise. Bond prices, which move inversely to bond yields, rose across all fixed income sectors, alleviating concerns of further rate increases.

It is expected that the Fed won’t raise again until it has validation about economic and wage growth producing inflationary pressures.

Central banks from around the globe continue to shrink their balance sheet, emulating the latest actions by the Federal Reserve in the United States. Shrinking or reducing a central bank balance sheet is a form of monetary tightening, thus an indirect method of raising short term rates. So far, the Fed’s balance sheet has fallen from a peak of $4.5 trillion four years ago in January 2015 to $4 trillion in January 2019. (Sources: U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg)

China Trade Deficit Reaches Largest Ever In 2018 – International Commerce

China’s trade deficit with the U.S. rose to the largest difference ever in the last quarter of 2018 as ongoing trade disputes continue. In October 2018 alone, U.S. exports to China were valued at $9.13 billion versus imports from China were valued at $52.23 billion, resulting in a $43 billion trade deficit for the month.

Over the past twenty-five years, China has evolved from a heavy equipment and machinery exporter to a prominent leader in technology product exports. Large international conglomerates have established an enormous manufacturing presence throughout China, utilizing its cheap labor and quick turnaround times. China’s manufacturing plants are among the most modern in the world, producing large capacities almost entirely for export.

As the world’s appetite for electronic devices has grown, so has China’s ability to manufacture and export these devices. As a product exporter, China is able to manufacture and export finished products worldwide. In addition, China is also an exporter of components, which may be used in the manufacture and assembly of products in other countries, such as the United States. By exporting components in addition to finished products, China is able to hedge against tariff issues and labor costs should they become a factor.

Trade with China has grown tremendously over the past 30 years, from nearly a trade balance in 1985 to a trade deficit of $375 billion in 2017.  Imports from China were $506 billion while U.S. exports to China were $130 billion, thus an ensuing trade deficit.

Ironically, China’s purchases of U.S. government debt has helped maintain a low interest rate environment, thus reducing loan rates allowing U.S. consumers to finance more expensive Chinese imports such as big screen TVs, cell phones and computers. (Sources: WTO, IMF, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, FRED)