Fortis Wealth Management

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June 2021
Market Update
(all values as of 06.28.2024)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 39,118
S&P 500 5,460
Nasdaq 17,732

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 4.71%
10 Yr Treasury 4.36%
10 Yr Municipal 2.86%
High Yield 7.58%

YTD Market Returns:

Dow Jones 3.79%
S&P 500 14.48%
Nasdaq 18.13%
MSCI-EAFE 3.51%
MSCI-Europe 3.72%
MSCI-Pacific 3.05%
MSCI-Emg Mkt 6.11%
 
US Agg Bond -0.71%
US Corp Bond -0.49%
US Gov’t Bond -0.68%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 2,336
Silver 29.43
Oil (WTI) 81.46

Currencies:

Dollar / Euro 1.06
Dollar / Pound 1.26
Yen / Dollar 160.56
Canadian /Dollar 0.73

Macro Overview

Financial global markets are draw­ing sup­port from ongoing vaccinations and improving economic indicators. Consumer sentiment is improving, resulting in rising consumer demand as pandemic worries wane. Economists theorize that pent-up demand from the past year is driving the a significant portion of economic activity.

Ransomware cyberattacks and internet crimes have been rising at an alarming rate according to the FBI, threatening companies, government entities and individuals. Digital currencies, such as bitcoin, are the primary form of payment utilized for ransom and extortion cases since payments can be made anonymously and are not traceable. The FBI encourages individuals, especially the elderly, to be aware of online scams and phone calls by visiting its Common Scams & Crimes site https://www.fbi.gov/scams-and-safety/common-scams-and-crimes.

Escalating inflation concerns prompted Federal Reserve members to consider limiting purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds, which is an indirect method of raising interest rates. A reduction in monetary stimulus efforts, also known as tapering, last occurred in 2013.

The administration released a proposed $6 trillion federal budget for the upcoming fiscal year, expected to be funded by higher taxes for top earners and corporations. Fiscal analysts expect additional issuance of Treasury debt in order to help fund ongoing federal deficits.

Various states are ending supplemental unemployment benefits that were instituted during the early months of the pandemic last year. It is estimated that 3.7 million unemployed recipients will be affected. Some states that are eliminating unemployment benefits will instead offer financial incentives for individuals to find a job. The Department of Labor’s most recent data reveal that there were over 8 million unfilled job openings at the end of March, the largest number of openings since November 2018.

The upward trajectory of home prices made houses it less affordable for many, forcing some would-be home buyers to rent instead. Rising home values have resulted in rising rent costs nationwide, as scarce housing inventory spurred demand for rentals.An increase in travel spurred higher fuel costs for airlines and automobiles as pent up demand and the summer months propel prices higher. The average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline rose above $3 per gallon nationally in May, the highest since 2014. Crude oil prices, which directly affect the price of gasoline, rose over 80% in the past year. (Sources: FBI, Federal Reserve, EIA, Dept. of Labor)

 
the eia forecasts consumers will spend 31% more on gasoline this summer

Inflationary Pressures Affect Equities – Equity Market Update

Inflation pressures have been a minimal hindrance for the equity markets thus far, as many companies are passing along higher production and material costs to customers to maintain profit margins.

International equity markets, including developed and emerging, are recapturing momentum lost during the pandemic, generating returns comparable to those in the U.S. equity markets.

Sectors leading the S&P 500 Index in May include energy, financials, industrials, and materials, representative of economic expansion according to economists and analysts. Expansion in these sectors tend to influence other sectors as growth dynamics between industries are often interconnected. (Sources: S&P, Bloomberg)

Fed Tapering is Concerning Bond Markets – Fixed Income Market

Comments by Federal Reserve members hinted that the Fed is considering pulling back on Treasury and mortgage bond purchases, which is known as tapering. The last time the Fed slowed stimulus or pulled back on quantitative easing (QE), was in 2013, resulting in a so-called “taper tantrum.”

A curtailment in stimulus efforts by the Fed is expected to eventually result in rising bond yields, higher mortgage rates, and increased loan expenses for consumers. Historically, increasing interest rates has been the Fed’s most useful tool in mitigating inflationary pressures, which has recently become a focal point for the Fed. (Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury)

Travel Picks Up – Travel & Leisure

The proliferation of vaccinations, along with pent-up demand for travel, drove Americans to finally leave home and venture out. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) tracks and counts every traveler passing through a TSA security checkpoint in every airport nationwide. The data compiled over the past year shows a dramatic uptick in travel in May 2021 with 1,500,000 daily travelers versus just over 176,000 daily travelers in May 2020.

Airlines, car rental agencies, restaurants, and hotels tend to benefit from an uptick in travel, which has been nearly dormant for the past year. The increase in travel creates new jobs for the hospitality and travel industries, which were severely hit during the height of the pandemic.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. highway travel to rise by 15% this summer, as compared with last summer. The EIA forecasts that consumers will increase their spending on motor gasoline by about 31% this summer due to increased travel as the pandemic subsides.

Source: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput, EIA

 
gasoline rose roughly 50% over the past year

Inflation Creeps Up On Consumers – Consumer Behavior

Over the past year, global economies went from a slow expansion at the beginning of 2020 to an abrupt halt with the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Subsequently, supply chain bottlenecks became rampant as increasing demand evolved from a slowly recovering global economy. Historically, rising producer prices have been a predecessor to consumer inflation when manufacturers and distributors pass along the higher cost of materials and labor to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. A lack of critical components for everything from automobiles to cellular phones caused production shortages that led to decreases in supply as consumer demand fell across the globe in 2020. As demand recovered, shuttered factories and supply chains were not been able to keep up with the rising demand, resulting in order backlogs and higher prices. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

USPS Struggling – Government Agency Overview

The United States Postal Service (USPS) remains an integral part of the economy and the country’s infrastructure even as the popularity of electronic payments and digital transactions have dramatically reduced the volume of mail processed by the USPS.

Of the more than 129 billion pieces of mail delivered in 2020, the most widely used service of the USPS is its first class mail service. As the volume of all mail dwindled, so did first class mail, falling from over 103 billion pieces in 2000 to just over 52 billion pieces in 2020, roughly a 50% drop in twenty years. There have been numerous rate increases over the years, with the most recent rate increase to 55 cents for a 1-ounce letter in January 2019.

Source: USPS

 
grandparents can contribute up to $15,000 per year per grandchild

What To Do With That Unused Travel Budget – Financial Planning

As millions of Americans stayed home during the pandemic and hotels, resorts, and restaurants closed, budgets created for travel and vacation went idle. Many individuals are still deterred from traveling due to fear of the COVID-19 virus. Travel has become a bit more complicated and burdensome, with additional protocols for travelers and limitations on services offered.

With inflation a current topic of concern, higher educational costs are an issue for many college graduates. An option is to shift idle funds in the travel budget to a child’s or grandchild’s college savings account, such as a 529 plan. Named after the IRS Code it falls under, Section 529 plans have amassed over $425 billion in assets since their inception in 1997. Their popularity soared over the years as parents and grandparents took advantage of their favorable tax benefits while saving for college expenses. These plans offer two primary benefits: assets grow tax deferred and are withdrawn tax free for qualified expenses; and contributions made by parents and grandparents are considered a gift, providing a tax benefit for some contributors. Parents and grandparents have been the main contributors to these plans.

Any parent or grandparent can make gifts of up to $15,000 per year per individual person and to as many individuals as they wish. Section 529 plans allow gifts to be made five years in advance all at once. For instance, a grandparent is permitted to gift $75,000 per grandchild at once for the next five years. If the grandparent has five grandchildren, then they have the ability to contribute $375,000 at once to the 529 plans, which are considered gifts. There would be no gift tax, assuming no other gifts were made to that child over the five applicable years. This is a strategy for parents and grandparents that have estates valued at over $11.7 million, the current federal estate tax exemption level. (Source: www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/estate-tax)

Job Openings Surpass 8 Million – Labor Market Update

Growing demand for workers by companies eager to fill positions led to unfilled job openings exceeding 8 million nationwide as of the end of March, according to the most recent data available from the Department of Labor. Economists and analysts believe that generous unemployment benefits, along with stimulus payments, discouraged many of the unemployed from returning to work. Lower-paying job positions are the toughest to fill, as unemployment payments often equal or exceed wages. Various occupations in manufacturing, hospitality, transportation, and food services saw the largest growth in openings since the pandemic began in March 2020. Some companies have announced higher wages and increased hourly pay in order to entice workers, yet still struggle to fill open positions. (Source: BLS)