Dow Jones Reaches 20,000 – Domestic Equity Update

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit the milestone 20,000 mark in January. The 120-year old index took 103 years to reach 10,000 in March 1999, then another 18 years to reach 20,000 in January 2017. The move from 19,000 to 20,000 took just 42 trading days, the second fastest 1,000 point gain in history for the index. The single fastest 1,000 gain occurred during the dot com boom in 1999 when the index jumped from 10,000 to 11,000 in only 24 days. Two other notable equity indices also reached new highs in January, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Equity markets pulled back at the end of January as uncertainty surrounding various administrative policies and some disappointing corporate earnings fueled a retraction of major indices. Earnings were mixed in January as earnings were reported for various companies across different sectors.

A number of industries that have been laggards for the past 4 to 8 years have now become candidates for growth and expansion: oil & gas drillers, metal & glass containers, fertilizers & agricultural chemicals, tankers, and mining.

A common complaint about stock market growth has been the fact that most companies found it easier to simply issue debt at low interest rates and buy back their own stock, rather than investing in capital with the constant tide of regulatory resistance discouraging expenditures.

Sources: Dow Jones, S&P

Homes Become Less Affordable As Rates Move Up – Housing Market

The recent rise in rates has led to a drop in the Housing Affordability Index as tracked by the Federal Reserve. Both existing and new home sales slowed towards the end of 2016 as a rise in rates pushed mortage rates higher. Rising interest rates tend to increase the cost factor when purchasing a home with a mortgage loan.

The two most feasible methods of raising the Affordability Index is by either having an increase in wages or by having a drop in housing prices. Historically, home prices tend to fall much faster than wages rise, since pay raises take time.

The Housing Affordability Index is negatively correlated to the 10-year Treasury Bond yield, meaning that as yields rise, the Affordability Index declines.

Source: St Loius Federal Reserve Bank

What The U.S. Imports From Mexico – Trade Overview

The Trump administration has proposed a 20% tariff on imported products from Mexico in order to better balance the trade deficit with the country. Some argue that imposing such a tariff would make certain imported products more expensive for American consumers.

The U.S. imported over $21 billion worth of vehicles from Mexico in 2016, with auto parts accounting for the single largest type of product imported from Mexico valued at over $51 billion in 2016, making the automotive industry an integral component of trade with Mexico. Interestingly enough, exports headed from the U.S. to Mexico are primarily for use in the automotive industry, with machinery, fuels, and plastics making up the largest portions.

Agricultural and food products imported from Mexico, such as tomatoes and beer, totaled over $21 billion in 2015, the most recent data available.

Sources: Dept. of Commerce, BLS