KCG Investment Advisory Services

Kimberly Good

315 Commercial Drive, Suite C1

Savannah, GA 31416



Market Update
(all values as of 03.29.2024)

Stock Indices:

Dow Jones 39,807
S&P 500 5,254
Nasdaq 16,379

Bond Sector Yields:

2 Yr Treasury 4.59%
10 Yr Treasury 4.20%
10 Yr Municipal 2.52%
High Yield 7.44%

Commodity Prices:

Gold 2,254
Silver 25.10
Oil (WTI) 83.12


Dollar / Euro 1.08
Dollar / Pound 1.26
Yen / Dollar 151.35
Canadian /Dollar 0.73

Corporate Profits
Corporate profit is one of the most closely watched economic indicators.  It indicates the financial health of our corporations.  We are mid-point in the third quarter S&P 500 earnings season, and while Energy, Materials and Health Care earnings have declined, eight of the eleven sectors are growing.  The magnitude and frequency of earnings surprises are above their ten-year averages.  (insight.factset.com)  

The S&P is up more than 5% between October 27 and November 3, following J Powell’s announcement on October 26th, about the quarterly debt management process called “refunding”, which is used to bring yields in line with current economic conditions.  This process generally takes place in the middle of each quarter, but this quarter occurred at the end of month one and the announcement came just a week before the Fed meeting.  ~$102 billion treasury bonds paying near 0% were called; and ~$112 billion bonds were issue at current rates, fewer than many had expected.  As a result of the smaller debt auction and the Pause in treasury rate increases, we’ve seen a significant surge in the market.  Some project the rally will be short-lived, but by the end of last week, yields had fallen down to 4.5%, reducing borrowing rates and increasing bond valuations; both stocks and bonds are rallying.
I believe we may be reaching an inflection point.  Economic indicators are turning up, indicating an acceleration of corporate profits and cash flows in 2024.  Perhaps the refunding will act as the catalyst leading to a more stable, productive market.
Volatility moves in both directions.  Stocks that move drastically in one direction have similar potential to move in the opposite direction.

Those of us who chose not to participate in the Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech stock rally in the first 6 months of 2023 have been more than a little disappointed in our performance year to date.  After losses in 2022 we’ve been looking for a recovery but had generally stayed flat in the first half.  June & July were promising, with stocks and bonds showing signs of returning to their “normal” behavior.  But part of that normal is the trend that August & September are most often, losing months.  So we anticipated a better October, only to be struck with the reality of an Israeli-Hamas war with the potential of expansion.  In the face of all that, however, our economy continues to perform.
On the other hand, those who bought into the Magnificent 7 in 4Q22 had the timing right – until they didn’t.  Those stocks have now lost a lot of their 2023 gains in the second half. It has been proven statistically, that very few are able to time the market successfully.  Likely, the average investor experienced at least a part of the major losses in ’22, led by those same 7 stocks.  2023 returns were applied to a much lower basis, and until last week were eroding even further.
That’s the bad news.  That’s how we’ve been feeling.  That is the definition of market sentiment.
Now the good news!  It is when market sentiment is at its lowest that the market reaches a point of inflection.

Based on these big three indicators, I am hopeful.